471
FXUS61 KAKQ 281730
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN COMES TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY AND COOLER WEEKEND
EXPECTED BEFORE A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WEEK.
2) POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN COMES TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY AND
COOLER WEEKEND EXPECTED BEFORE A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WEEK.
THE BATCH OF RAIN HAS MADE IT TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR NE NC OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY
0.25-0.4" ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPWARDS OF 0.5-0.7" ACROSS THE
SOUTH - A DECENT WETTING RAIN THAT WAS NEEDED. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE THICK CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO SCATTER AND LIFT,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND EVERYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BAY AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
(INCLUDING NORFOLK). THIS COULD STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE'RE
ALREADY LOOKING AT QUITE A COLDER DAY FOR EVERYONE AS COOLER AIR
FILTERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AND EASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND, LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, NNW/NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER OUTSIDE. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN. THANKFULLY,
WITH THE RAIN WE JUST RECEIVED, IT SHOULD HELP US AVOID ANY
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY, THOUGH ALWAYS BE MINDFUL
OF ANY POTENTIAL IGNITION SOURCES JUST IN CASE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN LATER TODAY, EXPECT SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR AND NNW/NNE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TONIGHT, WITH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
COASTLINE FALLING TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TO EVEN BELOW
FREEZING. OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT STARTED HERE LOCALLY
QUITE YET, BUT IF YOU HAVE ALREADY PLANTED ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS,
YOU WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE
FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE MOVING FORWARD, WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY, LOWER 70S ON MONDAY, AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN MILDER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING THE RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE ACTIVE AND WET FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY PUSH IN ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER. IT'S TOO EARLY TO NAIL
DOWN ANY EXACT DETAILS, BUT JUST KNOW THAT WE MAY BECOME QUITE
MESSY FOR A FEW DAYS IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PANS OUT - MAYBE
MAKING YOUR EASTER EGG HUNTS A SMIDGE MUDDY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/28 TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN
FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30KT. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND
WILL NOT PICK UP TO ~10KT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SW FLOW
RETURNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
- BENIGN, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- A ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND ~1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE CENTRAL US. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MIDDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE
WATERS. WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WITH N TO NE WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS (LOCALLY 35 KNOTS AT THE ELEVATED SITES).
WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AM, POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SCAS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...JKP
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB
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