308
FXUS61 KAKQ 091123
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
723 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRI AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD START TO THE DAY WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. STILL COOLER
THAN AVERAGE, BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT, BUT PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
2) REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
STILL SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS TUE-THU NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD START TO THE DAY WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
STILL COOLER THAN AVERAGE, BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT, BUT PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1037MB) IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, RIDGING SSW INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT,
THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK, IN BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST.
THE LOCATION OF THE SFC RIDGE, HAS LED TO SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AND EAST-CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SE VA.
THESE AREAS REMAIN IN A FROST ADVISORY (RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING),
GIVEN THAT THE EVENT HAS ALREADY UNFOLDED, BUT DID ADD WORDING
INTO THE FROST ADVISORY MENTIONING LOCALIZED TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NW REMAINS AS IS,
WITH TEMPS NOW INTO THE LOWER 30S, AND PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE. CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPS
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SCT-BKN
STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING,
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL TODAY,
SHIFTING TO THE E-SE INLAND, WHILE REMAINING E-NE ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVG TODAY,
BUT WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND, WITH MOSTLY MID-UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT, THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER E-NE OFF TO ATLANTIC
CANADA, BUT DOES STILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE,
SO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE
AND POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THIS SETUP. THE OTHER THING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS SFC DEW PTS CONTINUE TO RISE
WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN GENERAL, THE GREATEST FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER INTERIOR VA AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE
UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT STILL
SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS TUE-THU NEXT WEEK.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS, THE COLD FRONT LIKELY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
BETTER RETURN FLOW SHOULD RETURN HIGH TEMPERATURE BACK INTO THE
70S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BAY FRIDAY (65 TO 70 EASTERN
SHORE). HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY FOR
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE E-NE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE INCREASINGLY
WARM AND REMAINING DRY. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S
MON, THEN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TUE-THU. LOOKING AT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, THEY ARE MOSTLY IN THE
90S, BUT WILL STILL POTENTIALLY BE CHALLENGED. THIS SETUP WILL
EXACERBATE THE ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS, THAT ARE VERY LIKELY
WORSEN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. RAIN CHANCES ARE BASICALLY ZERO
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z/09 MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW < 50% CHC FOR 0.50" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE SE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WELL W/NW OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS,
LEAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TODAY WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE E-SE INLAND AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE
E-NE IS FAR SE VA AND NE NC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THE
STEEPEST AT ORF/ECG SO HAVE WINDS 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING
THERE, WITH MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ELEVATED SEAS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1037 MB) IS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND STRETCHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LOCAL WATERS. MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ARE MEASURING
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS STILL SEEING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE
TIGHTER ACROSS THAT AREA. SEAS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY,
WITH 3-6 FT BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 1-3 FT
(LOCALLY UP TO 4 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY, SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO THAT BEING
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND EVEN AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS APPROACHING SCA ARE NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012-013.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060>062-
064>069-075-076-079>083-087>089-092-511>522.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-509-510.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/NB
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