095
FXUS61 KAKQ 091759
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.
2) REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT STILL
SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING
RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT. IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT COMPARED TO
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. STILL, WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE LOWER
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/CLOUDS. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE. CALM WINDS UNDER THE HIGH, COMBINED WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ANY FOG RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
STILL SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
SATURDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BETTER RETURN FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES RANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. VERY WARM TO HOT AREA ADVECTS INTO THE AREA,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY AND THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S (POTENTIALLY MID 90S IN SPOTS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOKING AT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, THEY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 90S, BUT WILL
STILL POTENTIALLY BE CHALLENGED. THIS SETUP WILL EXACERBATE THE
ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS, THAT ARE VERY LIKELY WORSEN IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 5% OR LESS CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (>0.10")
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG AND POTENTIALLY
LOW CIGS DEVELOP AFTER ~08Z ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND TO
ROUGHLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR VSBYS
AND/OR CIGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS AT SBY, ORF, AND PHF WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT RIC AND ECG. VSBYS MAY POTENTIALLY DROP
BELOW 1/2SM IN SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY FOG QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
SITES AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE ARE OUT OF THE NE ALONG THE COAST
(~10 KNOTS) AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND. WINDS BECOME CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING E TO SE FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ELEVATED SEAS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1037 MB) IS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND STRETCHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LOCAL WATERS. MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ARE MEASURING
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS STILL SEEING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A LITTLE
TIGHTER ACROSS THAT AREA. SEAS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY,
WITH 3-6 FT BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 1-3 FT
(LOCALLY UP TO 4 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY, SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO THAT BEING
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND EVEN AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS APPROACHING SCA ARE NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...NB
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