698
FXUS61 KAKQ 092326
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
726 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.
2) REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT STILL
SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING
RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT. IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT COMPARED TO
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. STILL, WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE LOWER
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT FOG/CLOUDS. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE. CALM WINDS UNDER THE HIGH, COMBINED WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ANY FOG RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
STILL SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON
SATURDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BETTER RETURN FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES RANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. VERY WARM TO HOT AREA ADVECTS INTO THE AREA,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY AND THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S (POTENTIALLY MID 90S IN SPOTS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOOKING AT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, THEY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 90S, BUT WILL
STILL POTENTIALLY BE CHALLENGED. THIS SETUP WILL EXACERBATE THE
ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS, THAT ARE VERY LIKELY WORSEN IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 5% OR LESS CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (>0.10")
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NE OF THE TERMINALS. E WINDS ARE DECREASING AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST
AFTER 06Z. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FAVORS FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE,
ESPECIALLY AT SBY, ORF, AND PHF. RIC AND ECG MAY BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER VSBY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE EXACT DETAILS
IS LOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FOG/STRATUS MIXING OUT.
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT, BUT RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 205 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ELEVATED SEAS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO THE NE, RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST OBS
INDICATE ENE WINDS AT 5-10KT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE A TOUCH HIGHER. THE EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE HIGHER
SEAS LOCKED IN WITH LATEST BUOY OBS SHOWING 4-5FT OFF THE MD COAST,
5-6FT OFF THE VA COAST, AND 6-7FT OFF THE NC COAST. SCAS CONTINUE
FOR ALL COASTAL WATER ZONES, AS WELL AS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WHICH
IS SEEING 3-4FT WAVES. THE SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME OVERNIGHT, BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS LOW AS 0-5KT OVER THE BAY/RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY FRI, TURNING TO THE SE. A DRY
COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA HEADING INTO SAT. SW FLOW PICKS UP
TO 10-15KT FRI NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE N SAT MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PICK UP TO AROUND 15KT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN THE BAY SAT MORNING
WITH THAT NORTHERLY SURGE. NWPS DOES KEEP THOSE 5FT SEAS LOCKED IN
THROUGH SAT, BUT AM HESITANT TO EXTEND THE SCAS MUCH PAST FRI
EVENING AS OF NOW GIVEN THE SHIFT TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION. E WINDS
RETURN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AT ~10KT AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AC
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