441
FXUS61 KAKQ 100618
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT STILL
SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING
RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
STILL SEASONABLE. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE "HOT", POTENTIALLY
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S.
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
THOUGH NO RAINFALL AND ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S NE TO UPPER 70S SW. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, THOUGH INLAND
AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. VERY WARM TO HOT AREA ADVECTS INTO THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY AND THEN UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S (POTENTIALLY MID 90S IN SPOTS) TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING
AT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, THEY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 90S, BUT WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY BE CHALLENGED. THIS SETUP WILL EXACERBATE THE ALREADY
DRY CONDITIONS, THAT ARE VERY LIKELY WORSEN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH THE
NBM SHOWING A 5% OR LESS CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (>0.10") OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AT SBY AND PHF THIS MORNING, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED IN THE COMING HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP AT RIC, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF IT BETWEEN 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AND LINGERING
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT, BUT RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS
COULD PERSIST THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BAY SATURDAY MORNING/MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- SUB-SCA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE WITH SW WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS AROUND 5 FT (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY). SCAS CONTINUE FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY IN FUTURE
UPDATES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS).
LIGHT WINDS BECOME SE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH (AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT). WINDS
BECOME SW AND REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT. THAT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE TO 15-
20 KT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PEAK WINDS LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 9 AM-2 PM SATURDAY. MAY NEED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE BAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POST FRONTAL WINDS. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-
40% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A ~3 HOUR PERIOD
LATE SAT AM/MIDDAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF LOW-
END SCAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON AS WINDS BECOME SW AT 15-20 KT AS
THE HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF SCAS IS ON THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AC/ERI
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