023
FXUS61 KAKQ 101816
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF WILL BE DRY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST AN RANDOM SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS MAINLY FAR SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTHERN NC ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE, THAT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE, GIVEN THE ALREADY VERY DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA (AND THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF), WILL OPT TO
KEEP OUT ANY PRECIP HOWEVER, IT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA COMPARED TO
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE AS WARM OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 IN SOUTHERN
VA AND INLAND NE NC. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
STILL, IT WILL TAKE IT'S TIME MOVING NORTH AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE COOLER ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BETTER ONSHORE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY.
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
OF +1 TO +2 SIGMA ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, A SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE THE LOWER 90S ON WED/THU
(UPPER 80S EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST). WED/THU ARE THE BEST
CHANCES TO BREAK MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY
COULD NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A 80+% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SIMILAR VALUES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE NBM BIAS CORRECTING
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE PAST 75 DAYS AND IS KNOWN FOR A WARM BIAS IN
THE SPRING TIME DUE TO THE WINTER BIASES INCLUDED. AS SUCH, IT SEEMS
LIKELY THE PROBABILITIES OF 95+ ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE NBM SUGGESTS.
STILL, EVEN THE RAW OUTPUT SHOWS AS MANY AS HALF OF THE MEMBERS OF
90+ DEGREES BY THURSDAY. SO, WHILE MID 90S MAY BE TOUGH TO SEE,
LOWER 90S DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MODEL TRENDS OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AND THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER ALSO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW
NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE TO E, BUT THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTH TONIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL
BE DRY WITH THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE IS A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT SBY AND ORF WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS
COULD PERSIST THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BAY SATURDAY MORNING/MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- SUB-SCA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE WITH SW WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS AROUND 5 FT (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY). SCAS CONTINUE FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY IN FUTURE
UPDATES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS).
LIGHT WINDS BECOME SE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH (AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT). WINDS
BECOME SW AND REMAIN 10-15 KT TONIGHT. THAT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE TO 15-
20 KT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PEAK WINDS LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 9 AM-2 PM SATURDAY. MAY NEED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE BAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POST FRONTAL WINDS. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 30-
60% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A ~3 HOUR
PERIOD LATE SAT AM/MIDDAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF LOW-
END SCAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON AS WINDS BECOME SW AT 15-20 KT AS
THE HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF SCAS IS ON THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC/ERI
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