977
FXUS61 KAKQ 110632
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
232 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH MOST AREAS OBSERVING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE NORTHEAST DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, THOUGH A WEAK, SPORADIC SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA INTO EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR EVEN MUCH CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER, IT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA COMPARED TO TODAY. ELSEWHERE, IT
WILL BE AS WARM OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80F IN SOUTHERN VA AND INLAND NE
NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL SHOVE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
WHILE THE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND PARKS ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK, WITH LOWER 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST). THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CHALLENGE RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA, AS A FEW AREAS MIGHT EVEN SEE MID
90S. THE NBM PERCENTILES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S
REMAINS SLIM. WITH THE HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE, ANY
FRONTS THAT COULD BREAK THIS STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIPITATION, AND NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 133 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WIND
DIRECTION TO THE NORTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL START TO TAPER OFF AS WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCAS IS EXPECTED ON THE BAY LATER THIS
MORNING-MIDDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- SUB-SCA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE WITH SW WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BECOME S-
SW AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. STILL SEEING OCCASIONAL 5 FOOT
SEAS CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AT THIS HOUR DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL,
AND WILL KEEP THE SCAS GOING UNTIL 7 AM FOR THE OCEAN. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE TO 15-20 KT AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PEAK WINDS LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 9 AM-2
PM. THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LOCAL WIND PROBS ONLY SHOW A 20-40% CHC
OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A ~3 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS
MORNING/MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE THE SCAS FOR THE BAY AS IS (WHICH RUN
THROUGH 17-20Z/1-4 PM TODAY). WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE SCAS FOR
THE OCEAN AT 7 AM, AS SEAS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NWPS
GUIDANCE SO FAR TONIGHT, AND THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WON'T FREQUENTLY
GUST TO 25 KT.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT THIS EVENING, WITH E-
SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF LOW-
END SCAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON AS WINDS BECOME SW AT 15-20 KT AS
THE HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF SCAS IS ON THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...NB/MRD
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AC/ERI
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