150
FXUS61 KAKQ 111734
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATED DISCUSSION, INCLUDING AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
ADDED CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED DRY
WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAKENING (DRY) COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IS NOW SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WINDS HAVE TURNED AROUND TO THE NNE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. COOL 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND WILL SERVE TO NUDGE THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WARM INTO THE 70S (MID 60S OXB) FOR MOST OF THE AREA, TO NEAR 80
OVER THE FAR SW CWA (SOUTH HILL/LAWRENCEVILLE VA VICINITY).
PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR MOST, LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND
VA NORTHERN NECK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM, LOOK FOR SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND, 65 TO 70
JUST INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP THE FRONT BACK TOWARD OUR
REGION EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED
DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BUILDING HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE AND
LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY INCREASE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL BY FOR
THE MUCH OF NEXT. LOWER 90S NOW APPEAR LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
(AT LEAST) THE END OF THE WEEK (UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST). RECORD HIGH AND HIGH MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO BE THREATENED ACROSS LOCAL CLIMATE SITES TUE-THU, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MID 90S FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE HIGH FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE, ANY FRONTS THAT
COULD BREAK THIS STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES, AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THIS
WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE EMERGING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, AND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MON/TUESDAY,
AN INCREASING FIRE RISK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WHILE NOT
APPEARING TO BE QUITE BREEZY ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX WATCH
CONDITIONS, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY
WELL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS EASE A BIT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN
ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NNE IN THE WAKE OF A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY. OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT WILL START
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME E-NE THIS EVENING, BUT
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF RIC-SBY, AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LINGERS ALONG THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY.
PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW, SO HAVE MAINTAINED CIGS AOA 5KFT
AGL.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCAS IS EXPECTED ON THE BAY LATER THIS
MORNING-MIDDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- SUB-SCA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE WITH SW WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BECOME S-
SW AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. STILL SEEING OCCASIONAL 5 FOOT
SEAS CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AT THIS HOUR DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL,
AND WILL KEEP THE SCAS GOING UNTIL 7 AM FOR THE OCEAN. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE TO 15-20 KT AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PEAK WINDS LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 9 AM-2
PM. THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LOCAL WIND PROBS ONLY SHOW A 20-40% CHC
OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A ~3 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS
MORNING/MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE THE SCAS FOR THE BAY AS IS (WHICH RUN
THROUGH 17-20Z/1-4 PM TODAY). WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE SCAS FOR
THE OCEAN AT 7 AM, AS SEAS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NWPS
GUIDANCE SO FAR TONIGHT, AND THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WON'T FREQUENTLY
GUST TO 25 KT.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT THIS EVENING, WITH E-
SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF LOW-
END SCAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON AS WINDS BECOME SW AT 15-20 KT AS
THE HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF SCAS IS ON THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AC/ERI
CLIMATE...MAM
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