374
FXUS61 KAKQ 111836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED DISCUSSION, INCLUDING AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
ADDED CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED DRY
WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAKENING (DRY) COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IS NOW SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS
WRITING. WINDS HAVE TURNED AROUND TO THE NNE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. COOL 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND WILL SERVE TO NUDGE THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WARM INTO THE 70S (MID 60S OXB) FOR MOST OF THE AREA, TO NEAR 80
OVER THE FAR SW CWA (SOUTH HILL/LAWRENCEVILLE VA VICINITY).
PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR MOST, LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND
VA NORTHERN NECK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM, LOOK FOR SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW, 65 TO 70 JUST
INLAND, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD. THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP THE FRONT BACK
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FACILITATING A STEADY, GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED
DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BUILDING HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY
THEN LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO STEADILY INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. LOWER 90S NOW APPEAR LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK INLAND, WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST. RECORD HIGH AND HIGH MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE
THREATENED ACROSS LOCAL CLIMATE SITES TUE-THU, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
WITH THE HIGH FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE, ANY FRONTS THAT
COULD BREAK THIS STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES, AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THIS
WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE EMERGING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, AND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MON/TUESDAY,
AN INCREASING FIRE RISK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WHILE WINDS
DON'T QUITE APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX WATCH CONDITIONS,
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY WELL BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS EASE A BIT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NNE IN THE WAKE OF A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY. OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT WILL START
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME E-NE THIS EVENING, BUT
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF RIC-SBY, AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LINGERS ALONG THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY.
PROBAILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOW, SO HAVE MAINTAINED CIGS
AOA 5KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING SW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
BRIEFLY GUSTY N WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, WINDS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED SUB-SCA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
THUS THE SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL BE CANCELLED.
SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 FEET AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 2
TO 3 FEET.
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT THIS EVENING, WITH E-
SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES PAST OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF
LOW-END SCAS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON AS WINDS BECOME SW AT
15-20 KT AS THE HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHC OF SCAS IS ON
THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND PERHAPS
THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING OVER ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THURSDAY AND
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SURGES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
CLIMATE...MAM
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