400
FXUS61 KAKQ 121814
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER TONIGHT, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
MONDAY.
2) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER TONIGHT, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
MONDAY.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP
THE FRONT BACK TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FACILITATING A STEADY, GRADUAL WARMUP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY WELL TO OUR NNW LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMPRESS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SSW TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW EVENING. WARMER TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S INLAND, MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND WITH WARM, BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY, CONCERN FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
BECOMES CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS, WHILE RH AND
WINDS ARE STILL NOT QUITE REACHING CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WX
WATCH HEADLINES, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS CERTAINLY
WARRANTED. WILL BE ISSUING A "FIRE WEATHER SPS" FOR INLAND VA
COUNTIES MONDAY, MAINLY OVER THE VA NORTHERN NECK INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. GOOD MIXING
WILL ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE MON
AFTERNOON, AS SSW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 MPH. WILL RE-EVALUATE
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY, BUT WILL HOLD THESE AREAS OUT FOR NOW, WITH MINIMUM RHS
LOOKING TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND PARKS ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS BERMUDA HIGH SET UP IS MORE TYPICAL TO A PATTERN
SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY TURN THE HEAT UP OVER THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEK
AHEAD. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK,
WITH LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK INLAND, UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CHALLENGE RECORDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CURRENT RECORDS AT OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES ARE
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN, ANY FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO WASH
OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. WITH THE VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS ONLY SERVING TO WORSEN EXISTING/EMERGING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO MAINTAINS BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR THAT REASON, WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY
REFERENCED BREEZY CONDITIONS EASE A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEAR MONITORING FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-CLOUD
DECK OF EARLIER IN THE DAY IS GRADUALLY MIXING OUT TO BEGIN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS ~10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO SSE THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING
SSW LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SBY AND RIC OVERNIGHT, COINCIDENT WITH A DEVELOPING,
THOUGH TRANSIENT LLJ. WINDS THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MON MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING,
AVERAGING 15-18 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SSW WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BECOMING LESS GUSTY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.
- LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING SW WINDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, LEADING TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. SEAS ARE 3-4 FT WITH 1-2 FT
WAVES. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, ALLOWING SE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WINDS VEER TO THE
SW AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT ON THE BAY/15-20 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT/MON WITH THE SW WINDS.
LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE
BAY (HIGHEST N) FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES GIVEN
THE LOW-MEDIUM PROBS IN A WAA REGIME (WHERE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES
OVERESTIMATES WIND SPEEDS). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH. SW
WINDS REMAIN ~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON MONDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT
LOW-END SCAS ON THE RIVERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY DUE TO MIXING
OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW THROUGH
THURSDAY AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
SURGES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
CLIMATE...MAM
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