357
FXUS61 KAKQ 130645
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS SITES MEASURING GUSTS OF 15-20
MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD IN THE
LOWER 60S. ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR NNW
TODAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE
FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED BREEZY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE WASHED OUT REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING POSSIBLE LOW END CHANCES FOR SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF IF THESE
SHOWERS DO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO OUR AREA, NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TYPICALLY PROPELS
OUR TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SETTLED IN THE
80S, THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE CONTINUED BERMUDA HIGH SET-UP, MOST TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME, WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN LOWER 90S
(TO ISOLATED MID 90S) WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK
(UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST). THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
CURRENT RECORDS AT OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES LISTED IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. WITH THE STRONG HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, ANY FRONTS APPROACHING THE
REGION WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, SO THIS WILL BE A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST 8-
14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY AND TUESDAY, INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE VA NORTHERN
NECK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA, AND ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS AS GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS EASE A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 133 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY ONLY
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER AT RIC THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EVEN IF THIS DOES
OCCUR, WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT RIC AND SBY. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SW FLOW, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN WILL
START TO RELAX TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SSW WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF DAILY, BRIEF SURGES IN THE EVENINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
15-20 KT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT (PERHAPS UP TO 5 FT
NORTH BUT UNFORTUNATELY BUOY 44009 AND 44089 AREN'T REPORTING ATTM).
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND BAY NORTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT FOR THE ONGOING WINDS. WINDS BECOME SW AND
DIMINISH TO ~15 KT BY MID MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY NEAR
THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE AND ON THE RIVERS DURING THE LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. GUSTS TO
20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS ON THE RIVERS AND NEARSHORE ON
THE LOWER BAY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION (PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM-4 PM). THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED NEW SCAS
FOR THE RIVERS AND LOWER BAY FROM 10 AM-6 PM TODAY. THE SCAS
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM
OFFSHORE. SW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS) THROUGH THE WEEK. AS SUCH,
ADDITIONAL MARGINAL SCAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-
088-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ632-634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...ERI/RMM
CLIMATE...MAM
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