733
FXUS61 KAKQ 131805
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
RECORD TO NEAR- RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AND WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WILL LOCK IN
A VERY WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THIS BERMUDA HIGH SET-UP, MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID SUMMER,
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW, WITH LOW 90S (TO ISOLATED MID
90S) WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEK.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE CURRENT RECORDS AT OUR
LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE STRONG HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, ANY FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION
WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, BUILDING EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
FINALLY SERVE TO BREAK THE HEAT RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WEATHER OFFICES, WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FURTHER
INCREASED FIRE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE BREEZY RETURN
FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW, WINDS/GUSTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH
TOMORROW. THAT SAID, RH VALUES ARE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY, AVERAGING 25-30% INLAND, 30-35% CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OVERALL THOUGH, FIRE WX CONDITIONS REMAIN A BIT ABOVE CRITICAL
FIRE WX THRESHOLDS TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY ONLY
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. BREEZY SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AVERAGING ~15-18KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, RELAXING TO ~8-10KT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT LESS SO THAN TODAY, WITH SSW WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10 KT, GUSTING TO ~15-20KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SSW WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF DAILY, BRIEF SURGES IN THE EVENINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
15-20 KT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT (PERHAPS UP TO 5 FT
NORTH BUT UNFORTUNATELY BUOY 44009 AND 44089 AREN'T REPORTING ATTM).
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND BAY NORTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT FOR THE ONGOING WINDS. WINDS BECOME SW AND
DIMINISH TO ~15 KT BY MID MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY NEAR
THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE AND ON THE RIVERS DURING THE LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. GUSTS TO
20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS ON THE RIVERS AND NEARSHORE ON
THE LOWER BAY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION (PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM-4 PM). THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED NEW SCAS
FOR THE RIVERS AND LOWER BAY FROM 10 AM-6 PM TODAY. THE SCAS
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
IT LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM
OFFSHORE. SW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS) THROUGH THE WEEK. AS SUCH,
ADDITIONAL MARGINAL SCAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...ERI/RMM
CLIMATE...MAM
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