714
FXUS61 KAKQ 271925
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED FOR TUESDAY AND THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT
WEDNESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE UPDATES: ALL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE ENDED. SCAS REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO TUE MORNING, AND THE OCEAN
INTO EARLY WED. ALL OTHER SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEAR,DRY, AND COOL TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PIEDMONT TOMORROW, BUT ANY RAIN AMOUNTS APPEAR VERY LIGHT.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIALLY MAYBE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINITY
3) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLEAR,DRY, AND COOL TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PIEDMONT TOMORROW, BUT ANY RAIN AMOUNTS APPEAR VERY LIGHT.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERHEAD LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY. AS OF 2PM TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. NO FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE JUST
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM EVEN THOUGH THE RH TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR 100%
FOR TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY. HOWEVER, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEST AND ALONG I-95.
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO LINGER
IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE
ONGOING ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE IS MORE
CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED (MONDAY INTO TUESDAY) ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAN SHOWER CHANCES COULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST. TRENDS IN REAL TIME AND MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS, MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MEAGER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.1" ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGHS WILL BE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIALLY MAYBE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINITY
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ACROSS
OHIO AND INO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH A WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGH THE DAY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS (LATER IN THE DAY) ARE
FORECASTED. IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS THERE STILL REMAINS A LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, THE ENSEMBLES ARE ON BOARD WITH OVER 0.10"
INCHES OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER, FOR ANYTHING OVER 0.50" THERE REMAINS
DISAGREEMENT. THE EURO ENSEMBLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST EXCITED WITH
WIDE SPREAD PROBS OF40-50% WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
10-20%. ANY OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE COLOCATED
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
NOW IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION, THERE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LINGERING ALLOWING FOR ANY
INSTABILITY TO REMAIN MINIMAL. WILL NOTE THAT MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS DO HAVE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BREAKING UP ALLOWING FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF
THIS IS TO HAPPEN AND GIVEN MODEST SHEAR (20-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR) AND
LAPSE RATES (6-7 C/KM) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IF A
SEVER STORM IS ABLE TO OCCUR IT COULD POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND, HAIL, AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO. AS OF THIS UPDATE AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND THE SPC THE MARGINAL WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE UNCERTAINTIES ARE ABLE TO BE
RESOLVED THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATER UPGRADE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO PLACE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO BELOW TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MUCH DRIER AIR. BY THE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PLENTIFUL
RAIN FALL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LESS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SYSTEM AND
HAS WIDE SPREAD PROBS OF 50-70% OF QPF GREATER THAN 0.50". WHILE THE
CMC AND EURO ENSEMBLES HAVE THE SYSTEM SUPPRESSED AND HAVE PROBS
BETWEEN 30-40% OF 0.50" CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES, IF THIS SYSTEM PROVIDES BENEFICIAL RAIN FALL THIS
WEEKEND IT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN
FORECASTED FOR ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDS IN THE DATA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1242 PM EDT MONDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD. NNE
WINDS ARE 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BREEZIEST ALONG THE COAST,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AT PHF, ORF, AND ECG. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH A BETTER SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL TUESDAY, BUT
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY/OCEAN, BUT HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.
- NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE UPPER BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO ~10 KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS OF 15-20KT CONFINED TO THE
OCEAN OFFSHORE OF FAR SE VA AND NE NC. SCAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ALL ZONES MINUS THE OCEAN (MAINLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT), AND
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE WAVES WILL LINGER AROUND 4
FT TONIGHT. SEAS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE (6-8 FT)
AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE NC WATERS (5-7 FT). THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS CANADA. WINDS
BECOME E TO SE BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
ONSHORE/BAY/RIVER BREEZE ENHANCEMENT LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ~5 FT TUESDAY DESPITE THE MINIMAL WINDS.
A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE W ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A PERIOD WITH ELEVATED S-SE WINDS, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, THIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN/EVENING THAT COULD
BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, AND A SURGE FOR NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT
IS EXPECTED, SO SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF
NOT THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
COASTAL FLOODING...PREDOMINANT EBB CURRENTS LED TO LOWER THAN
EXPECTED WATER LEVELS OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY/TIDAL RIVERS DESPITE A GOOD SURGE OF ONSHORE/NE FLOW. NO
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. WITH ELEVATED SEAS INTO
MIDWEEK, AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED, SOME MINOR TO
NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY FROM
LEWISETTA TO THE BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WED EVENING/WED NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET/SW
MARINE...LKB
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