013
FXUS61 KAKQ 281057
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. RAIN CHANCES
HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
3) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 650 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95.
WEAKENING 1024+MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY.
HOWEVER, WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, APPROACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 THROUGH MIDDAY. 00Z/28 CAMS REMAIN LESS
AGGRESSIVE REGARDING QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAGER AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.1" ACROSS THE WEST, WITH SOME SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY AMOUNTING UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATER
IN THE DAY, HOWEVER A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE
AREA; THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE FROM THE MID-SOUTH CROSSES THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FIRST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY,
WITH THE SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. IT IS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THAT THE FIRST SLUG OF
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND HENCE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHEN THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WHILE
A CONVECTIVE THREAT EXISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IT IS STILL VERY MUCH A CONDITIONAL ONE.
CAMS ARE COALESCING BEHIND CLEARING SHOWERS OUT BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
PIEDMONT OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD THIS MIDDAY
CLEARING OCCUR, THE COMBINATION OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND
30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MID-LEVEL (H5-H7) LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM,
ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE
REGION; HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING INCREASES, AN
UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN SETUP ALOFT FOR THE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO QUEBEC, AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CONUS, MOVING FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA THU TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY
AND FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN
FAR SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z/28 GEFS AND GEPS
EACH ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE, AND AS A RESULT SHOW THE SYSTEM
GETTING ULTIMATELY ABSORBED BY THE SPRAWLING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH THEN EJECTING NE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX, THE CURRENT EPS/EC SOLUTION WOULD YIELD SOME VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WHILE THE CURRENT
GEFS/GEPS SOLUTION COULD PORTEND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOAKING
RAINFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EPS SOLUTION DOES FIT THE
ANTECEDENT DRIER AND MORE BLOCKY PATTERN, BUT NONETHELESS POPS
REMAIN IN THE 40-60% RANGE FOR RIGHT NOW AND MODEL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 28/12Z TAF
PERIOD SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT/CALM
AT SUNRISE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BECOMING S-SW INLAND
(E-SE COASTAL TERMINALS) 5-8 KT BY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF DECAYING CONVECTION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AS OF THIS
WRITING. CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BUT REMAIN VFR. AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED DECAYING CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST, THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
MAINLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED AT KRIC
THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED LIGHT RESTRICTIONS (CIGS/VSBY)
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND CROSSES THE
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE UPPER BAY.
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT (~5KT) ONSHORE WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1
FOOT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TRANSLATING OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SE
TONIGHT, GENERALLY MAINTAINING 5-10 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 20 KT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FLOW BECOMES NW AND STRENGTHENS TO 20-
25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY THURSDAY. WAVES
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW SURGE ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SCA HEADLINES CURRENTLY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO 5 FT SEAS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
AFTER DISCUSSING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHTS INCREASING AGAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A BIT EARLY IF THESE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW BUT THE HIGHEST SEAS
SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST IN OFFSHORE
FLOW.
COASTAL FLOODING...WITH ELEVATED SEAS INTO MIDWEEK, AND A MODEST
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED, SOME MINOR TO NUISANCE TIDAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY FROM LEWISETTA TO THE
BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WED
EVENING/WED NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY/OCEAN, BUT HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.
- NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE UPPER BAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO ~10 KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS OF 15-20KT CONFINED TO THE
OCEAN OFFSHORE OF FAR SE VA AND NE NC. SCAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ALL ZONES MINUS THE OCEAN (MAINLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT), AND
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE WAVES WILL LINGER AROUND 4
FT TONIGHT. SEAS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE (6-8 FT)
AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE NC WATERS (5-7 FT). THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS CANADA. WINDS
BECOME E TO SE BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
ONSHORE/BAY/RIVER BREEZE ENHANCEMENT LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ~5 FT TUESDAY DESPITE THE MINIMAL WINDS.
A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE W ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A PERIOD WITH ELEVATED S-SE WINDS, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, THIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN/EVENING THAT COULD
BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, AND A SURGE FOR NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT
IS EXPECTED, SO SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF
NOT THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
COASTAL FLOODING...PREDOMINANT EBB CURRENTS LED TO LOWER THAN
EXPECTED WATER LEVELS OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY/TIDAL RIVERS DESPITE A GOOD SURGE OF ONSHORE/NE FLOW. NO
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. WITH ELEVATED SEAS INTO
MIDWEEK, AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED, SOME MINOR TO
NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY FROM
LEWISETTA TO THE BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WED EVENING/WED NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
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