097
FXUS61 KAKQ 281911
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE REMAINS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, NOW WITH ALL THREATS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A WEAKER LOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER LOW WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING A FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA.
THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR
INTO WHETHER OR NOT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. LIKELY, THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE THE MOST AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING MID DAY. SHOULD
THIS MIDDAY CLEARING OCCUR, THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND 30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM
COULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
FOR THE AREA, AND NOW HIGHLIGHTS LARGE HAIL AS A POSSIBLE THREAT,
MOSTLY WEST OF I-95, IN ADDITION TO A NON-ZERO RISK OF TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THEN THIS WEEKEND, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS ON THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAINFALL, BUT PROBS
OF 0.1" ARE 40-70% , SO NOT EXPECTING A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/28 TAF PERIOD.
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING BEHIND LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SSE AROUND 5-10 KT AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT
WILL REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP, THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED
LIGHT RESTRICTIONS (CIGS/VSBY) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY INTO
SAT NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND CROSSES THE WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE UPPER BAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. THE WIND IS LIGHT
AND GENERALLY E/SE 5-10KT. SEAS ARE 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT
OFFSHORE OUT NEAR 20NM, AND 5-6FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY ARE ~1FT AND 2-3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH A SE WIND
INCREASING TO 10-15KT FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING S AND
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 20 KT. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE FLOW BECOMES NW AND STRENGTHENS TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY THURSDAY. WAVES INCREASE TO
3-4 FT IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW SURGE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO 5 FT SEAS (HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN QUITE A BIT ABOVE BUOY OBSERVATIONS, BUT
HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ALLOW HEADLINES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW BUT THE HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD
BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST IN OFFSHORE FLOW.
COASTAL FLOODING...WITH ELEVATED SEAS INTO MIDWEEK, AND A MODEST
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY, SOME MINOR TO NUISANCE TIDAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY FROM LEWISETTA TO THE
BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...MAM
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
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