152
FXUS61 KAKQ 290613
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE REMAINS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, NOW WITH ALL THREATS POSSIBLE.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A WEAKER LOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER LOW WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING A FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA.
THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR
INTO WHETHER OR NOT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. LIKELY, THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE THE MOST AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING MID DAY. SHOULD
THIS MIDDAY CLEARING OCCUR, THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AND 30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM
COULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
FOR THE AREA, AND NOW HIGHLIGHTS LARGE HAIL AS A POSSIBLE THREAT,
MOSTLY WEST OF I-95, IN ADDITION TO A NON-ZERO RISK OF TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THEN THIS WEEKEND, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS ON THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAINFALL, BUT PROBS
OF 0.1" ARE 40-70% , SO NOT EXPECTING A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING AT MAJORITY OF AREA
TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRIC AND TERMINALS JUST TO THE
WEST, WHERE STRATUS PRECEDING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DROP
CIGS TO MVFR, REACHING KRIC BY AROUND SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD
RETURN BRIEFLY TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER, SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL APPROACH, WITH SUB-VFR CIGS TO FOLLOW,
REACHING KRIC BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A VCSH
MENTION FOR THE SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. A MAJORITY OF THE
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TRAILING FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION AFTER 22Z/6PM WED, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD
LINE OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SE THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED LIGHT RESTRICTIONS (CIGS/VSBY)
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA,
RETURNING TO VFR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AHEAD OF AND NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY FOR BAY-FACING PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE MAINLY SE 5-10 KT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1
FT WITH SEAS 3=4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAGS FOR THE CHES BAY AS SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL LULL IN THE
WINDS LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN 6+ HOURS OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS,
WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR THE STRONGER POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME NW AND
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STEEPEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD INTO NC. WAVES IN
THE BAY WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT IN THE PREFRONTAL SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW WAVE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 4-5
FT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE STRONGER NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES WILL BUILD TO 5-7
FT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LIKELY SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
COASTAL FLOODING...WITH ELEVATED SEAS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING, SOME MINOR TO NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER BAY, PRIMARILY FOR BAY-FACING PORTIONS
OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY OR STATEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...RHR
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