099
FXUS61 KAKQ 291751
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY,
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY,
WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KY/SOUTHERN OH LATER THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING AN
INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CAMS PRESENT A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S
CONVECTION. THE UPSHOT REMAINS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER A BRIEF LULL, AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. IF MINIMAL SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION, AND HENCE
A STRONGER SEVERE THREAT. IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT THE SPC
MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT. SHOULD THAT CLEARING AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, THE KINEMATICS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION. 30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT THIS ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT, AND MID-LEVEL (H7-5)
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7+ C/KM COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN
A NON-ZERO RISK OF TORNADOES. CONVERSELY, IF THOSE CLOUDS AND
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS DO CROSS INTO THE
REGION, THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DESTABILIZATION, WITH A SUBSEQUENTLY MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT OVER
OUR AREA. THERE'S EVEN A BIT OF A PRECIP- SPLIT FLAVOR EVIDENT
IN SOME OF THE CAMS IN THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LIMIT QPF EVEN
FURTHER. AS IT IS, THE QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WON'T
OFFER MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION IN MOST ANY
SCENARIO. AND GIVEN TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED QPF SLIGHTLY TO < 0.25"
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN SETUP ALOFT FOR THE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A STRONG, BUT
COMPACT UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CONUS,
MOVING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE FLATTER/MORE SUPPRESSED AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION,
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST, AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW PUSHING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY, PUSHING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT RAINFALL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES OF QPF > 0.1" ARE 40-70%, SO NOT EXPECTING A
DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE 18Z/29 TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, EXPECTED TO CROSS AFTER
22Z/6PM. A FEW LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SHOWERS
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH FOR RIC AND SBY, WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. THEN WITH THE
FRONT, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTION REACHING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE PREVAILING CONDITIONS, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR
SBY/RIC/PHF AND PROB30S FOR ECG/ORF. MOSTLY SHORT LIVED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING NE ~10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AHEAD OF AND NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY FOR BAY-FACING PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE MAINLY SE 5-10 KT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1
FT WITH SEAS 3=4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. OPTED TO RAISE SCA FLAGS FOR THE CHES BAY AS SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL LULL IN THE
WINDS LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN 6+ HOURS OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS,
WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR THE STRONGER POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME NW AND
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STEEPEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD INTO NC. WAVES IN
THE BAY WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT IN THE PREFRONTAL SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW WAVE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 4-5
FT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE STRONGER NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES WILL BUILD TO 5-7
FT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LIKELY SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
COASTAL FLOODING...WITH ELEVATED SEAS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING, SOME MINOR TO NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER BAY, PRIMARILY FOR BAY-FACING PORTIONS
OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY OR STATEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...RHR
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