863
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY,
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND. THE WARM FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
EASTERN SHORE. THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL HAVE CONSISTENTLY DECREASED
THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, THERE HAVE BEEN VIRTUALLY NO
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH
HAS KEEP DESTABILIZATION TO A MINIMUM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECONDARY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WITH THE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION, WILL BE HARD TO GET
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE AREA FOR DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO, BUT THIS IS A VERY MARGINAL
MARGINAL RISK. ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL LIKELY AVERAGE LESS THAN
0.10", BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN SETUP ALOFT FOR THE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A STRONG, BUT COMPACT UPPER
LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CONUS, MOVING FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY
AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FLATTER/MORE
SUPPRESSED AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST, AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PUSHING ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY, PUSHING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO HAMPTON ROADS
AND NE NC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM LATEST RUNS FOR 0.1" NOW SHOWING
50-100% CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND 40-70% CHANCE OF 0.5". THE
MORE RAIN THE BETTER, BUT STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A DROUGHT
BUSTER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT WEDNESDAY ...
MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR SBY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW CHC OF A TSTM BETWEEN
01-06Z (BEST CHC AT ECG BASED ON THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE). ONLY
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT ECG SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW ELSEWHERE. SHORT LIVED IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR BETWEEN 03-10Z (MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST) BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY. MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN CUMULUS THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE-SW THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT,
BECOMING NW ~10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WITH GENERALLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHES BAY UNTIL 10 AM.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CHES BAY.
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND INCREASING
BACK TO ~15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY UNTIL 10 AM. 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY
EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
ARE 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BRIEF SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
50-70% IN THE CHES BAY FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEADLINES EXPIRE BEFORE DECIDING ON ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. THIS LOW WILL BE
SUPPRESSED TO SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BUT WILL POSSIBLY TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS (LOWER BAY/JAMES,
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND) FOR
SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER BAY THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE
POTOMAC EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS NW WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL
NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
BUT WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075-077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...RHR
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