851
FXUS61 KAKQ 301738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STEADY RAINFALL WILL PUSH ACROSS
MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN AND LESSER RAIN TOTALS FROM THE VA
PIEDMONT/RICHMOND METRO TO THE VA NORTHERN NECK, AND THE MD
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH STEADIER
RAINFALL LIKELY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE SUNDAY, BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLEARING WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, BUT NO SEVERE THREAT TO SPEAK OF AT
THIS TIME. ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG EVIDENT IN REGIONAL OBS
THAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN EARNEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT MAY
LINGER ALONG THE FAR SE COAST, ALLOWING FOR THE LOW CHANCE OF A
BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX. OTHERWISE, DECREASING
CLOUDS, BREEZY, AND DRIER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONABLE
TEMPS TODAY, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOL AND DRY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND, UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SE COAST UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,
BUT REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
STEADIER RAINFALL LIKELY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE SUNDAY, BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE REMAINING (BRIEFLY) DRIER ACROSS THE
SOUTH. AS THAT FEATURE WASHES OUT LATE FRIDAY, OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKER APPROACHES THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG A COASTAL FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NAEFS
IVT CONTINUES TO MAXIMIZE (97-99TH PERCENTILE) ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CAROLINA COAST, SUGGESTING
THE PLUME OF DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH.
STILL, A STEADY SLUG OF LIGHT (STRATIFORM) RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NC AND HAMPTON ROADS ON SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING THAT THE
COOL, STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. ACCORDINGLY,
THE LATEST 00Z/30 GEFS/EPS PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" REMAIN IN THE
70-100% SE OF RIC METRO, BUT HAVE LOWERED TO 20-50% OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT 0.5+" OF
RAINFALL REMAINS AT 50-80% IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND 20% OR LESS NW
OF A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY. THIS WILL
BE A WELCOME RAINFALL FOR SOME, TO BE SURE, BUT NOT A DROUGHT-
BUSTER BY ANY MEANS.
RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CLEARING OUT AND REMAINING DRY SUNDAY, AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD
THEN BACK ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL FROM MONDAY TOWARD MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SCT
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS OVC HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE,
LINGERING OVER THE SE TERMINALS (ORF/ECG). A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST AT ORF AND ECG AROUND 04-06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY, BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WITH GENERALLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHES BAY UNTIL 10 AM.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CHES BAY.
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND INCREASING
BACK TO ~15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY UNTIL 10 AM. 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY
EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
ARE 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BRIEF SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
50-70% IN THE CHES BAY FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEADLINES EXPIRE BEFORE DECIDING ON ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. THIS LOW WILL BE
SUPPRESSED TO SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BUT WILL POSSIBLY TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS (LOWER BAY/JAMES,
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND) FOR
SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER BAY THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE
POTOMAC EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS NW WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL
NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
BUT WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...RHR
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