826
FXUS61 KAKQ 301907
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STEADY RAINFALL FOR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND DREARY WEATHER SATURDAY. STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND DREARY WEATHER SATURDAY. STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER AIR SW FLOW THAT HAS ALLOWED
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS HAS
PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, ONLY
EXPECTING TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NW AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE SE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
THE DAY TO BE DRY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70F. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COOLER, STABLE AIRMASS TO
THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CAUSE PORTIONS OF THE SE TO SEE MORE RAINFALL
THAN OTHERS. STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SE VA/NE NC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00". THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE PROBABILITY OF 1.00", SHOWING ONLY A 10-30%
CHANCE FOR NE NC. PROBS FOR 0.50" FOR THE TIDEWATERS AREAS,
INCLUDING NORFOLK AND HAMPTON ROADS, HAVE INCREASED TO 40-70%. AREAS
NORTH OF THE TIDEWATERS, INCLUDING RICHMOND, WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL,
LIKELY ONLY 0.10" IN NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR SOME, TO BE SURE, BUT NOT A DROUGHT- BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING AND REMAIN DRY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S LIKELY RETURNING BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA MID WEEK THAT COULD BRING A FEW FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK AND OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SCT
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS OVC HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE,
LINGERING OVER THE SE TERMINALS (ORF/ECG). A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE WINDS NEAR THE COAST AT ORF AND ECG AROUND 04-06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY, BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WITH GENERALLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHES BAY UNTIL 10 AM.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CHES BAY.
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND INCREASING
BACK TO ~15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY UNTIL 10 AM. 2-3 FT WAVES IN THE BAY
EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASE TO 1-2 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
ARE 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BRIEF SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
50-70% IN THE CHES BAY FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEADLINES EXPIRE BEFORE DECIDING ON ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. THIS LOW WILL BE
SUPPRESSED TO SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BUT WILL POSSIBLY TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS (LOWER BAY/JAMES,
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND) FOR
SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER BAY THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE
POTOMAC EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS NW WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL
NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
BUT WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page