683
FXUS61 KAKQ 010628
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 18Z TAF.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STEADY RAINFALL FOR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MARINE: SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ALSO TRENDED WINDS HIGHER FOR
LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND DREARY WEATHER SATURDAY. STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND DREARY WEATHER SATURDAY. STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER AIR SW FLOW THAT HAS ALLOWED
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS HAS
PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, ONLY
EXPECTING TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 40S FOR THE NW AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE SE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING
THE DAY TO BE DRY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70F. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COOLER, STABLE AIRMASS TO
THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CAUSE PORTIONS OF THE SE TO SEE MORE RAINFALL
THAN OTHERS. STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SE VA/NE NC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00". THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE PROBABILITY OF 1.00", SHOWING ONLY A 10-30%
CHANCE FOR NE NC. PROBS FOR 0.50" FOR THE TIDEWATERS AREAS,
INCLUDING NORFOLK AND HAMPTON ROADS, HAVE INCREASED TO 40-70%. AREAS
NORTH OF THE TIDEWATERS, INCLUDING RICHMOND, WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL,
LIKELY ONLY 0.10" IN NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR SOME, TO BE SURE, BUT NOT A DROUGHT- BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING AND REMAIN DRY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
ZONAL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S LIKELY RETURNING BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA MID WEEK THAT COULD BRING A FEW FRONTS
ACROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK AND OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE N
5-10 KT. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT ORF AND ECG. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. S OR SE FLOW
SETS UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE
SE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ECG.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO ~25
KNOTS.
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC OBX LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~25 KNOTS IN ITS WAKE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3
TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET SOUTH. WAVES IN
THE BAY ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET (UP TO 4 FEET AT
THE MOUTH). SCAS ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO MATCH
THE LOWER BAY AND WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM. SCAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EXPIRE AT 10 AM. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS
MORNING.
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED
TO SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS (LOWER BAY/JAMES, COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND) FOR SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE WIND PROBS FOR 25+ KNOTS
REMAINS HIGH, THE PROBS FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED. EXPECT
A MAINLY HIGH-END SCA EVENT, WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS (~8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE) AND 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/LKB
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