891
FXUS61 KAKQ 011043
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
643 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MUCH
OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC.
2) COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER
SUNSET WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM THE GULF COAST ENE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA LATE. 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE SE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON SATURDAY WITH QPF DROPPING
OFF RAPIDLY WITH NW EXTENT. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, HAVE GONE BELOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH POPS AND QPF,
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, EXTENDING NE
INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. TOTAL QPF IS NOW
FORECAST TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM FARMVILLE NE INTO THE RICHMOND METRO AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK AND DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD. 0.1-0.25"
IS FORECAST TO THE EAST OF THAT LINE WITH QPF AOA 0.5" CONFINED
TO FAR SE VA AND NE NC. DESPITE PALTRY QPF FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOL AND CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE
OFFSHORE. COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S, A FEW
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. FALLING
DEW POINTS AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS. FLOW
TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT FRIDAY ...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE N ~5 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. S OR SE FLOW SETS
UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE SE
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ORF AND ECG WHERE MVFR HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO ~25
KNOTS.
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC OBX LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~25 KNOTS IN ITS WAKE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3
TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET SOUTH. WAVES IN
THE BAY ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET (UP TO 4 FEET AT
THE MOUTH). SCAS ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO MATCH
THE LOWER BAY AND WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM. SCAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS EXPIRE AT 10 AM. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS
MORNING.
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED
TO SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS (LOWER BAY/JAMES, COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND) FOR SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE WIND PROBS FOR 25+ KNOTS
REMAINS HIGH, THE PROBS FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED. EXPECT
A MAINLY HIGH-END SCA EVENT, WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS (~8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE) AND 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/LKB
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