990
FXUS61 KAKQ 011855
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST NC.
2) COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNNY N AND PARTLY SUNNY S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. ALOFT, THE FLOW IS SPLIT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH, AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW CENTERED NE OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM THE
GULF COAST ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA LATE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N TONIGHT, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SE
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON SATURDAY WITH QPF DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY
WITH NW EXTENT, EVEN MORE SO COMPARED TO THE 00Z GUIDANCE. TOTAL
QPF IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST ALONG A LINE
FROM FARMVILLE NE INTO THE RICHMOND METRO AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK AND DORCHESTER COUNTY, MD (MAINLY DRY
NW OF THIS CORRIDOR). 0.1-0.25" IS FORECAST TO THE EAST OF THAT
LINE WITH QPF AOA 0.5" CONFINED TO FAR SE VA AND NE NC
(PRIMARILY E OF THE CHOWAN R.). DESPITE PALTRY QPF FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOL AND CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE
OFFSHORE. COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S, A FEW
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2....COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS. FALLING DEW POINTS AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FOR INLAND AREAS. FLOW TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IF ANYTHING, THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY AFTER
00Z THURSDAY, OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND
NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND IS LESS THAN 10KT OUT OF THE E TO SE.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE OFF
THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS TO
ORF, ECG, AND PHF, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ORF AND ECG. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ALONG THE
COAST, AND 8-12KT FARTHER INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT RIC AND SBY WITH BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-10KFT AND
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC OBX SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND SEAS TO
DECREASE TODAY, NOW WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT
AND WAVES AND SEAS 1-2 FT AND 3-4 FT, RESPECTIVELY. THE LOCAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT. THE SURGE IN WINDS WILL COME AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SE,
BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW, SO GIVEN THE NATURE OF SURGE,
HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING SCA FOR THE CHES. BAY TONIGHT.
THEN ON SATURDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
INITIALLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY, BUT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE TWO
NORTHERN MOST COASTAL ZONES STARTING SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
CHES. BAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, AND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND, WITH
WINDS PEAKING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE LOCAL
WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT HAS DECREASED SOME, NOW AROUND 50%
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN SOME AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH
MID MORNING SUNDAY. WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME TO 3-4 FT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (3-4 FT SEAS N).
WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SUB- SCA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY FOR THE CHES. BAY, BUT IS
LOOKING MORE MARGINAL. MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC
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