321
FXUS61 KAKQ 021723
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY
DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH INLAND WITH MAX QPF BELOW 0.5", EVEN WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST
IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC.
2) COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY
AND SLOWLY DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INLAND WITH MAX QPF BELOW 0.5", EVEN WHERE POPS
ARE HIGHEST IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF DECREASED QPF WITH MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM HAMPTON ROADS/SOUTHERN VA COAST AND NE NC NOT LIKELY TO SEE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. QPF
CONTINUES TO DECREASE EVEN FOR THESE AREAS WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
LIKELY BELOW 0.5". FARTHER INLAND, THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL ONLY BE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS. THE RELATIVE
WARMEST HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S. UPPER 50S
ARE FORECAST IN AREAS THAT ACTUALLY SEE SOME PRECIP AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING NW. SOME COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S NW TO THE LOW/MID 40S TOWARD THE COAST. IF WINDS ARE LESS
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, A FEW OF THE COOLER/OUTLYING RURAL SPOTS IN
THE PIEDMONT COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
POSSIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2....COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS, ESPECIALLY
FOR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FALLING DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS RH IS FORECAST TO FALL TO 25-30% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, HOWEVER. FLOW TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DEEPER MOISTURE
POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW FOCUSES
THE HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES LATER IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME MVFR IN SE VA/NE NC DUE TO
BOTH CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MVFR TO HANG ON AT ECG
THROUGH 21Z WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN 7-10KFT
AGL AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM.
N-NNE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS BECOME NW AT AROUND 10 KT LATER TONIGHT-SUN. A FEW
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC OBX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL
BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
EARLY THIS MORNING, DEVELOPING ~1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF
THE SC COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OUT OF THE S TO
SW. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY 1 TO 2 FEET. THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME N TO NW
LATER THIS MORNING AND THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN. WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS ~25 TO 30 KNOTS) EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES), BUT GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. A BETTER N TO NW SURGE OF WIND IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS MINUS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE CURRENT SCA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE UP TO CHINCOTEAGUE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS, SEAS
WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET (HIGHEST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. LATEST WIND PROBS SHOW ~50-70% CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING NW LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-509.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
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