992
FXUS61 KAKQ 021833
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND
FLUVANNA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES
FROM 3-8 AM.
2) COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND
FLUVANNA COUNTIES FROM 3-8 AM.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC, WHILE THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
NW. TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S DUE TO THE CLOUDS, CAA, AND LIGHT
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
FROM INTERIOR SE VA TO THE PENINSULA TO ~0.25" IN NE NC. ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.10" ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN NE NC) THROUGH 4-
5 PM BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. WINDS TURN NW AS AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF
CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THEY COULD DECOUPLE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS IN THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW/MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME MID 30S (ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST) IF IT DOES DECOUPLE IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY (AND IN FACT HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 33-36F READINGS IN THE PIEDMONT). WHILE IT IS MARGINAL,
HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2....COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS, ESPECIALLY
FOR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FALLING DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS RH IS FORECAST TO FALL TO ~25% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, HOWEVER. FLOW TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF WE'LL REMAIN DRY
ASIDE FROM AND ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHC OF 0.5" OF RAIN
WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING
A FEW DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, AM NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME MVFR IN SE VA/NE NC DUE TO
BOTH CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MVFR TO HANG ON AT ECG
THROUGH 21Z WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BUT CIGS SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN 7-10KFT
AGL AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE TONIGHT/SUN AM.
N-NNE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS BECOME NW AT AROUND 10 KT LATER TONIGHT-SUN. A FEW
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC OBX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL
BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
EARLY THIS MORNING, DEVELOPING ~1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF
THE SC COAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OUT OF THE S TO
SW. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY 1 TO 2 FEET. THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME N TO NW
LATER THIS MORNING AND THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN. WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS ~25 TO 30 KNOTS) EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES), BUT GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. A BETTER N TO NW SURGE OF WIND IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS MINUS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE CURRENT SCA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE UP TO CHINCOTEAGUE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS, SEAS
WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET (HIGHEST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. LATEST WIND PROBS SHOW ~50-70% CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING NW LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-509.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
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