029
FXUS61 KAKQ 030517
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
117 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND
FLUVANNA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES
FROM 3-8 AM.
2) COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL END BY THIS EVENING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN LOUISA AND
FLUVANNA COUNTIES FROM 3-8 AM.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC, WHILE THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
NW. TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S DUE TO THE CLOUDS, CAA, AND LIGHT
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
FROM INTERIOR SE VA TO THE PENINSULA TO ~0.25" IN NE NC. ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.10" ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN NE NC) THROUGH 4-
5 PM BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. WINDS TURN NW AS AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF
CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THEY COULD DECOUPLE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS IN THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW/MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME MID 30S (ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST) IF IT DOES DECOUPLE IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY (AND IN FACT HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 33-36F READINGS IN THE PIEDMONT). WHILE IT IS MARGINAL,
HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2....COOL SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S WITH BREEZY NW WINDS, ESPECIALLY
FOR N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FALLING DEW POINTS AND LACK OF
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS RH IS FORECAST TO FALL TO ~25% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, HOWEVER. FLOW TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF WE'LL REMAIN DRY
ASIDE FROM AND ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHC OF 0.5" OF RAIN
WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING
A FEW DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, AM NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE DEEPENS AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF BKN/OVC CIGS AROUND
8-9 KFT, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE
LIKELY AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BACK OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT SBY
WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE STEEPEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE AFTN. REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND
SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL
BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE WIND
OBSERVATION SITES ARE MEASURING NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1-3 FT, AND SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS ~25 TO 30 KNOTS) EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES), BUT GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BETTER N TO NW SURGE OF WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY
FOR ALL AREAS MINUS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS).
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. LATEST WIND PROBS SHOW ~50-70% CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING NW LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT. WITH WINDS BEING
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME,
SEAS WILL ONLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WILL BUILD
TO 5-7 FT WITH THE WIND SURGE BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-509.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>637-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/NB
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