463
FXUS61 KAKQ 031736
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND COOL START TODAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. WARMER TEMPS RETURN MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND COOL START TODAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPS RETURN MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRAVERSING CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS AND SOME MECHANICAL MIXING
FROM 5-10 MPH WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR THIS
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FLUVANNA AND LOUISA COUNTIES WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A SUNNY BUT COOL AND INITIALLY
BREEZY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LIKELY TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 20-30% RANGE. SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR GIVEN VERY LOW RH AND THE LACK OF RAINFALL FROM
YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW INCREASED
FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS.
FLOW TURNS SW ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE. WARMER AND DRY
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2....ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF WE'LL REMAIN DRY
ASIDE FROM AND ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NE AND
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WITH THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH. THE LOW
TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHC OF 0.5" OF RAIN WED
NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING
A FEW DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, STILL NOT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 545 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE DEEPENS AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF BKN/OVC CIGS AROUND
8-9 KFT, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
ARE LIKELY AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BACK OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT SBY
WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE STEEPEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE AFTN. REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND
SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, BAY, AND
LOWER JAMES UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL BEGINNING LATER
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE TN
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE (15-20 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT) ACROSS THE BAY, OCEAN, AND LOWER JAMES WITH COOL,
DRY ADVECTION ONGOING. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET, WHILE WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. WINDS THEN BECOME SSW
AND CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE AFTERNOON
WIND PROBS NOW SHOW A ~70-90% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG EARLY MAY COLD
FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FROPA DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ORDER OF ~6 HOURS. REGARDLESS, THE FROPA
WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM THU AM-THU AFTN. SCAS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TUE NIGHT-WED
NIGHT. THEN, WINDS BECOME NW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND IT WITH
SOLID SCAS LIKELY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
(POTENTIALLY 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT) FROM LATE THU-THU
NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-639-650-652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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