376
FXUS61 KAKQ 031815
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTIER NW WINDS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTENED BETWEEN A LOW SE OF MAINE AND AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE SEASONAL
NORMS, AND RH VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TOMORROW. WHILE SOME DECOUPLING IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ONLY LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO POSSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD INHIBIT ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM REACHING
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES NOT DEVELOP OR IS
DELAYED AND WINDS DO DECOUPLE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON
MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT REPRIEVE FROM WIND, GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). THIS STRONG SW SURFACE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. THE WARM AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2....ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, AND GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LATEST SUITE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. QPF IS LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH (UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS
TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WITH THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH. THE
LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO
FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, WITH MORE NORTHERN
TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF 0.5"
OF RAIN WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN
EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
WAS SHOWING A FEW DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, STILL
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SQUASHES RAIN CHANCES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE FEW-SCT AT MOST, WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL REALLY START TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH SW FLOW EXPECTED
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25
MPH EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR
SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, BAY, AND
LOWER JAMES UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL BEGINNING LATER
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE TN
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE (15-20 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT) ACROSS THE BAY, OCEAN, AND LOWER JAMES WITH COOL,
DRY ADVECTION ONGOING. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET, WHILE WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. WINDS THEN BECOME SSW
AND CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE AFTERNOON
WIND PROBS NOW SHOW A ~70-90% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG EARLY MAY COLD
FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FROPA DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ORDER OF ~6 HOURS. REGARDLESS, THE FROPA
WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM THU AM-THU AFTN. SCAS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TUE NIGHT-WED
NIGHT. THEN, WINDS BECOME NW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND IT WITH
SOLID SCAS LIKELY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
(POTENTIALLY 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT) FROM LATE THU-THU
NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-639-650-652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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