647
FXUS61 KAKQ 040634
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
234 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTIER NW WINDS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTENED BETWEEN A LOW SE OF MAINE AND AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE SEASONAL
NORMS, AND RH VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TOMORROW. WHILE SOME DECOUPLING IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ONLY LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO POSSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING ON THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD INHIBIT ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM REACHING
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES NOT DEVELOP OR IS
DELAYED AND WINDS DO DECOUPLE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON
MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT REPRIEVE FROM WIND, GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). THIS STRONG SW SURFACE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. THE WARM AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2....ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, AND GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LATEST SUITE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. QPF IS LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH (UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS
TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WITH THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH. THE
LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO
FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, WITH MORE NORTHERN
TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF 0.5"
OF RAIN WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN
EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
WAS SHOWING A FEW DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, STILL
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR WILL PREVAILS THROUGH THE 04/06Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL AVERAGE S 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
BASES ARE AROUND 12 KFT ON AREA OBSERVATIONS. WINDS BECOME SSW
OR SW 10-15 KT AS MIXING GETS GOING LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. VERY DRY COLUMN WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
TODAY BUT COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT FOR FEW/SCT ABOVE THE
OF THE MIXED LAYER.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR
SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS
LATER TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE OF
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WIND OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS, BUT HAVE NOTED A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS (MAINLY AT
ELEVATED LOCATIONS). SEAS ARE AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET, WHILE WAVES IN
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT SUB-SCA LEVELS.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER, AS WELL AS ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER
WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO BUILD, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 5 FEET
(HIGHEST NORTH) TONIGHT. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN 20-60NM OFFSHORE WATERS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG EARLY MAY COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FROPA DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF ~6 HOURS. REGARDLESS, THE FROPA WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR
SOMETIME FROM THURSDAY AM INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCAS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN, WINDS BECOME NW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEHIND IT, BRINGING ANOTHER SCA POTENTIAL. THE LATEST FORECAST/NBM
SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE SEE HIGHER WIND THAN WHAT
IS BEING SHOWN DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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