434
FXUS61 KAKQ 041730
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREA WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
1020MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRATOCU WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW. WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO
THE SW TODAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL S FLOW BECOMES SW TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH LIKELY AS MIXING GETS GOING FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL MIX
DOWNWARD AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON RH LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 25-30%
RANGE. HOWEVER, SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHORT TERM WIND/RH TRENDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE WARMER TEMPERATURE'S EFFECT ON AFTERNOON RH. SW WINDS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER SO FIRE WX RISK REMAINS A
CONCERN. THE WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W/SW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE. QPF
REMAINS LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GENERALLY 0.10"
OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH (UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WITH THE GFS STAYING FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE
INSTABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL
ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY,
WITH MORE NORTHERN TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS, WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. WHILE ENSEMBLES
SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF 0.5" OF RAIN WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO
WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A FEW DAYS OUT.
THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, STILL NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING BY SATURDAY
BUT BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE LESS ENTHUSED AND
HOLD OFF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE FEW-SCT AT MOST, AND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REALLY START TO DECREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW EXPECTED TOMORROW, WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PICK UP, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH (25-30 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SBY IN THE AFTERNOON) EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR
SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS
LATER TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE OF
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WIND OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS, BUT HAVE NOTED A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS (MAINLY AT
ELEVATED LOCATIONS). SEAS ARE AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET, WHILE WAVES IN
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT SUB-SCA LEVELS.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER, AS WELL AS ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER
WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO BUILD, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 5 FEET
(HIGHEST NORTH) TONIGHT. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN 20-60NM OFFSHORE WATERS.
A MORE WIDESPREAD SCA POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG EARLY MAY COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FROPA DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF ~6 HOURS. REGARDLESS, THE FROPA WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR
SOMETIME FROM THURSDAY AM INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCAS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN, WINDS BECOME NW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEHIND IT, BRINGING ANOTHER SCA POTENTIAL. THE LATEST FORECAST/NBM
SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE SEE HIGHER WIND THAN WHAT
IS BEING SHOWN DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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