423
FXUS61 KAKQ 041749
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREA WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPS AND RETURN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
1020MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRATOCU WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW. WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SE COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO
THE SW TODAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOW LEVEL S FLOW BECOMES SW TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH LIKELY AS MIXING GETS GOING FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL MIX
DOWNWARD AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON RH LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 25-30%
RANGE. HOWEVER, SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHORT TERM WIND/RH TRENDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE WARMER TEMPERATURE'S EFFECT ON AFTERNOON RH. SW WINDS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER SO FIRE WX RISK REMAINS A
CONCERN. THE WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W/SW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE. QPF
REMAINS LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GENERALLY 0.10"
OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH (UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WITH THE GFS STAYING FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH.
THE LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE
INSTABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL
ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY,
WITH MORE NORTHERN TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS, WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. WHILE ENSEMBLES
SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF 0.5" OF RAIN WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT TO
WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A FEW DAYS OUT.
THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, STILL NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING BY SATURDAY
BUT BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE LESS ENTHUSED AND
HOLD OFF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE FEW-SCT AT MOST, AND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REALLY START TO DECREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW EXPECTED TOMORROW, WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PICK UP, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH (25-30 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SBY IN THE AFTERNOON) EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR
SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE SAME
AREAS LATER TUESDAY, AND FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS REFLECT SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THIS SSW REGIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT, AS WELL AS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30
KT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SEAS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING WIND WAVE AND A LINGERING NE SWELL.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOWER BAY. TIMING
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) ON THURSDAY REMAINS SLIGHTLY
UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CONSENSUS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MIDDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS VEER TO
THE NW POST- FRONTAL. HAVE LEANED ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AS THE MODELS
ARE LIKELY NOT RESOLVING THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
(CAA) WELL OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHER GUSTS THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS, AND HAVE THEREFORE MIXED IN A BIT OF NBM90 AS A RESULT.
A FEW GUSTS TO LOW- END GALE FORCE APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJB/MAM
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