825
FXUS61 KAKQ 181749
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. PUSHED BEST RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FARTHER
BACK IN TIME WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
BUILDING RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK IN
A SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 90S ARE EXPECTED INLAND
EACH DAY, WITH LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO
H85 TEMPS MAXING OUT BETWEEN 18-20 DEG C, DEEP MIXING, AND
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SSW FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY,
PERHAPS INCREASING A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY, CULMINATING WITH THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG MIXING AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EARLY MORNING
DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON, AND FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. THE DOWNSIDE TO THAT POINT IS THAT LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST INTO WED AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM OUR NW. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH. GIVEN A
GRADUAL SLOWING TREND IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION MOST LIKELY STAYS NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIC METRO
WED EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN
LOOKS TO EVOLVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
DAMPEN TO SE RIDGE, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. WHILE THERE REMAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, THEN LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA THU EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA, EXPECT A COOLER, CLOUDY DAY WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN/DRIZZLE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE WARM
SECTOR COULD LINGER A BIT LATER INTO THU ACROSS EXTREME SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY N/NE) AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THE THURSDAY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION, THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, AND DEPENDS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT. 00Z LREF
CONTINUES TO FEATURE MODEL SPREAD IN 2M TEMPERATURES OF ~12-15
DEG F FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA! WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF
THE WEDGE AIRMASS ERODES QUICKLY, AS THE PARENT HIGH EXITS TO
THE EAST AND THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS) ARE POSSIBLE
SAT/SUN, BUT BY NO MEANS DOES THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK TO BE A
WASHOUT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLE (EPS/GEPS/GEFS)
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF 48-HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL FOR
THE WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT PERIOD STILL HOVER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
50-70% ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER, IT IS HARD TO STAY AS
OPTIMISTIC AS ENSEMBLE/NBM GUIDANCE, GIVEN THAT 1) A POTENTIALLY
UNFAVORABLE FROPA TIMING FOR CONVECTION (MODEL TIMING WITH THE
FRONT IS EVEN LATER INTO WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. WEDNESDAY'S
CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR NNW, WITH THURSDAY'S
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIALLY TO BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH) AND
2) SEVERAL RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH RESPECT
TO DAY 3-5 MODEL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/18 TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OFFSHORE. SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BUT OTHERWISE SKC
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~10 KT, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT AT RIC AND SBY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, REMAINING ~10 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON MAY GUST TO
15-20 KT EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCA
CONDITIONS.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AT
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS IN THE BAY AND RIVERS (1-
2 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). THROUGH MID-WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH CONFIGURATION. WINDS REMAIN PRIMARILY SSW AROUND 10 TO
15 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY MID TO LATE-AFTERNOON NEARSHORE
SEABREEZE. THE AFTERNOON BREEZE WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT TO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS VEER BACK
OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE SURGES WILL BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF AND LIKELY WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY SCAS. EXPECT
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS SOME TIME
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS LATE WEEK. AT THIS
TIME, IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS SUGGEST THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, ONLY
BRIEF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND CONDITIONS MAY STAY
UNDER SCA CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH OR STALLS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE WIND REGIME LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 5/18 - 5/20
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/18 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- ----- ------
RICHMOND 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 5/18- 5/20
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/18 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- ----- ------
RICHMOND 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...NB
CLIMATE...MAM
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