523
FXUS61 KAKQ 190705
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING,
RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEAST NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FARTHER SOUTH.
3) AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK, WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BUILDING RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MIXING AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EARLY MORNING
DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON, FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH, AND FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FARTHER SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, FOCUSING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, LAGGING INTO LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH, AND THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF US-460
INTO NE NC. 00Z CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPARSE CONVECTION ONLY
REACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY
STAYING OUT OF THE RIC METRO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO, IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR NOW, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS MARGINAL LOCALLY, WITH THE BEST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY CONFINED JUST TO OUR N/NW. THE CONCERN REMAINS THAT
STORMS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA, BUT THEY REMAIN
POSSIBLE NONETHELESS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF RIC TO THE
VA NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH, GIVEN THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED CONCERNS, HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO SLIGHT TO
LOW-END CHANCE RANGE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA INTO
NORTHEAST NC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES OVER THESE AREAS HOLD OFF INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALBEIT WITH A LESSER SEVERE RISK DUE TO WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE BULK SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER A COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK, WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING EACH
DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SERVE TO DAMPEN THE SE RIDGE, WHILE ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND QUICKLY RISING PW VALUES
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, LEAVING AN EMERGING COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP
FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S FORECAST. THE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NORTH IS PROGRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO ERODE RELATIVELY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. BROAD SW FLOW
SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE
CONVECTIVE/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH BEST CHANCES
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. THUS, WHILE
SOME WELCOME RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BY NO MEANS SHAPING UP TO BE A WASHOUT.
UNFORTUNATELY, RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WEEK DO NOT LOOK LIKE THE
DROUGHT-BUSTING RAIN WE NEED. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MEAN OF ONLY 0.50-1.00" FOR THE WEEK. NOTE THAT WITH
RECENT SYSTEMS, THE ENSEMBLES WERE QUITE BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND WIDELY OVER-ESTIMATED MULTIPLE DAYS
OUT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. 1024+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WITH WINDS SSW 7-10 KT. WINDS LOOK TO
NUDGE UP TO 10-15KT BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTN, AND POTENTIALLY
A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO SSE CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. S/SW WINDS LIKELY GUST TO
15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SUB-VFR CIGS THEN PERSIST IN A WEAK COOL AIR WEDGE AIRMASS THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY
MORNING GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCA
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA THIS MORNING, EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH CONFIGURATION AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW. CURRENT MARINE WIND OBSERVATION SITES ARE MEASURING
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SSW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT
OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY MID TO LATE-AFTERNOON NEARSHORE SEABREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON BREEZE WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT TO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS VEER BACK
OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS SOME TIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NE
WINDS LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS SUGGEST THAT EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT, ONLY BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN
THE BAY) AND CONDITIONS MAY STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH OR STALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
WIND REGIME LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CONTINUITY OF
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA, THIS OUTCOME IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY, THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
MARGINAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY, MD) TODAY, WITH A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THE
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, ALL BEACHES WILL SEE A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK.
CLIMATE
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
RICHMOND SET A NEW RECORD HIGH MONDAY OF 96 DEGREES. THIS BROKE
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET IN 1911. ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 5/19 - 5/20
RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- -----
RICHMOND 97 (1962) 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 96 (1880) 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 97 (2011) 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 95 (1996) 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 5/19 - 5/20
RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- -----
RICHMOND 71 (1997) 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 72 (2017) 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 70 (1929) 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 72 (2018) 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...AJB/NB
CLIMATE...MAM
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