269
FXUS61 KAKQ 200602
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TOMORROW EVENING INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
NEAR THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE LEADING TO CONTINUED
WARM S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A RECORD HIGH AT RICHMOND. REMAINING MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MIXING AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EARLY MORNING
DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON, FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, FOCUSING ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, LAGGING INTO LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF US-460 INTO NE NC.
12Z CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPARSE CONVECTION ONLY REACHING NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY STAYING OUT OF THE RIC
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
STILL LOOKS MARGINAL LOCALLY, WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOCATED TO OUR N/NW. STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL, A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF RICHMOND AND OVER TO THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD
EASTERN SHORE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
EASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
DAMPEN THE SE RIDGE, WHILE ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND QUICKLY RISING PW VALUES ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP
QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, LEAVING AN EMERGING COOL
AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S
FORECAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE COOL AIR/CAD
WEDGE SETUP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE AIRMASS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY (AND
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY) BEFORE A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS OVER THE AREA
AND THE CAD AIRMASS ERODES. THE FRONT THEN LIKELY GETS HUNG UP OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GRADUAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/20 TAF PERIOD. CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE'S A LOW- END CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT RIC/SBY LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH
CHANCES REMAIN MUCH TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AT RIC/SBY AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SW WINDS ~10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING EARLY THU
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE LOCAL AREA. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY S-SW WINDS.
- A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH (BUT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING). CURRENT
MARINE WIND OBS INDICATE S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THE BAY THIS EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT
(AND 15-20 KT W/ 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN). WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO
10-15 KT BY LATE TONIGHT, AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH WED WITH
THE STAGNANT PATTERN. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ON THE BAY
LATE WED AFTN-WED EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK
DOWN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS THE
WATERS SOME TIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS
BEHIND IT. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY
(DUE TO WINDS) AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER (DUE TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT). LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW
A RELATIVELY HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE
MIDDLE/LOWER BAY FROM THU-FRI. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. WHILE
THE GFS STILL HAS 10-20 KT NE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, IT IS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY, MD) THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW RISK
ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, ALL BEACHES WILL SEE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK.
CLIMATE
AS OF 950 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TUE 5/19: RICHMOND TIED A RECORD HIGH MIN (71), AND SBY ALSO
TIED THE RECORD HIGH MIN (70). NO RECORD HIGH HIGHS WERE SET OR
TIED.
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD- BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY, BOTH FOR RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SEE BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH
MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB/MAM
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