293
FXUS61 KAKQ 201752
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW, BUT
INCREASED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER HOT DAY AHEAD TODAY, WITH THURSDAY ALSO LOOKING
QUITE WARM FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER HOT DAY AHEAD TODAY, WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKING QUITE WARM FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE, WITH BREEZY S-SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD,
WITH READINGS AVERAGING 70-75 DEG F REGION-WIDE AS OF 07Z.
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE RECORD OF 97F AT RIC LOOKING PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BEING ECLIPSED. UPPER RIDGING HOLDS FOR ONE MORE DAY AREA-
WIDE, AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MIXING AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EARLY MORNING DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT BY AFTERNOON, FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AND KEEPING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY CAPPED RIGHT AROUND
ACTUAL HIGH AIR TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
AS FOR THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT, MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS ARRIVAL, LAGGING INTO LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH, PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN VA SOUTH OF US-460 INTO
NE NC LATER TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 00Z CAMS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SPARSE CONVECTION ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY STAYING OUT OF THE RIC
METRO THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SPC HAS MORE OR LESS
MAINTAINED A DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA STILL LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL. GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND FORCING REMAIN TO OUR N/NW. STORM TIMING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IS QUITE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH THAT
CELLS WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS THEY ARRIVE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FOR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF RICHMOND, OVER TO THE
NORTHERN NECK, AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE. SPECIFICALLY, THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LIKELY COMES IN THE EVENT OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS TO OUR NNW.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
PENETRATE THE AREA, THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN TO
6.5-7 C/KM AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER
TO START, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT, PUSHING INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE SE
RIDGE, WHILE ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY SOUTH OF US-460, TO SNEAK OUT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC.
INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND QUICKLY RISING PW VALUES
WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THU EVENING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, AN EMERGING COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP TAKES
HOLD FOR FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DURABILITY
OF THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NAMELY, BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE IS A GROWING
SIGNAL THAT THE WARM FRONT REMAINS PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT
LONGER, THEREFORE HOLDING THE WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS INJECTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL, AS STABLE, LOW-LEVEL
NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT
BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS LIKELY
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY
EVERY DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOPEFULLY HOLIDAY PLANS WON'T BE
INTERRUPTED, BUT AT THIS STAGE IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, ANY
RAINFALL IS WELCOME!
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM AT RIC AND SBY ~03Z. LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING SBY ~09Z, RIC ~11Z, AND
PHF ~14Z (ORF AND ECG LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD).
CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT SBY, ESPECIALLY AFTER 11Z. RAIN CHANCES
(NORTH) AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (SOUTH) ALSO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SW WINDS ~10KT, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
NE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IFR) ARE LIKELY
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS A COOL, WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME
UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SSW AROUND 10
TO 15 KT. WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS SOME TIME EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NE WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARDS WITH WIND SPEEDS,
AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS OUR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT MAY STRUGGLE
TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY
(DUE TO WINDS) AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER (DUE TO SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT). LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW
A RELATIVELY HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ON THE
MIDDLE/LOWER BAY FROM THU-FRI. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. IF THE FRONT LIFTS MORE SLOWLY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL SEE
SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH PORTIONS OF SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY, MD) TODAY, WITH A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY, ALL BEACHES WILL SEE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
INCREASING SEAS AND LINGERING STRONGER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RIP RISK AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WEEK ON
FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 950 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TUE 5/19: RICHMOND TIED A RECORD HIGH MIN (71), AND SBY ALSO
TIED THE RECORD HIGH MIN (70). NO RECORD HIGH HIGHS WERE SET OR
TIED.
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD- BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY, BOTH FOR RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SEE BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH
MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ632-634-639-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ERI/NB
CLIMATE...LKB/MAM
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