648
FXUS61 KAKQ 210539
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COOL
WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW-
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING.
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON WELL N/NW OF THE AREA
(SHENANDOAH VALLEY/I-81 CORRIDOR) CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE THERE IS
BETTER FORCING. DCAPE VALUES OF ~1300+ J/KG EXIST OVER FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS AS SEEN ON SURFACE OBS AND MODEL/ACARS
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND FORCING REMAIN TO OUR N/NW. STORM TIMING OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS
QUITE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH THAT CELLS WILL START TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY ARRIVE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES OVER TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CAROLINE
COUNTY OVER TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE). SPECIFICALLY, THE BEST CHANCE
OF STRONGER STORMS LIKELY COMES IN THE EVENT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
FROM MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS TO OUR NNW. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN PENETRATE THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO
START, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT, PUSHING INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THURSDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE SE RIDGE, WHILE
ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO
FRONTAL TIMING ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORM CHANCES). IF THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SLOWER ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AND
MARGINAL SHEAR) TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
LOW-END THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER, WHERE WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE MOST HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR, WHICH WILL HELP
TO LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EARLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S LATER IN THE DAY.
INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND QUICKLY RISING PW VALUES WILL
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING,
EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, AN
EMERGING COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP TAKES HOLD FOR FRIDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DURABILITY OF
THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. NAMELY,
BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GROWING
SIGNAL THAT THE WARM FRONT REMAINS PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT LONGER,
THEREFORE HOLDING THE WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS INJECTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL, AS STABLE,
LOW-LEVEL NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES
LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY
DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WEEKEND
CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z GEFS AVERAGES 1.0"-1.5" AREA WIDE THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE EPS
AVERAGES 1.5"-2.0".
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW AS AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. BY MID-MORNING AT RIC AND SBY (EARLY AFTERNOON
AT ECG, PHF, AND ORF) , LOW CIGS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CIGS DROP TO IFR, AND HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT RIC AND SBY FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND -TSRA AT
ECG, PHF, AND ORF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCOMING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EXACT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
HENCE THE PROB30, BUT ONCE THIS BECOMES MORE CLEAR, THESE WILL
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AND CONVERTED TO TEMPOS. RIC AND SBY HAVE ALREADY
ARE SEEING WINDS TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT ECG, PHF, AND ORF THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
ONCE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT COMES THROUGH, WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TIMING VARIES OF THE WIND SWITCH, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT ECG WILL EVEN SEE A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IFR) ARE LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A COOL,
WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME UNSETTLED WITH
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE BAY, OCEAN NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 5 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY IN THE BAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FROPA, WHICH
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS FROM MID/LATE THU AM-THU AFTN. THE
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NC WATERS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM THU-
FRI EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER...WITH WINDS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES (WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF VA BEACH) DUE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST N) BY THU NIGHT WITH WAVES
OF 2-5 FT ON THE BAY. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND
COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM THU AFTN-FRI EVENING.
LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH (60-
100% OVER THE ADVISORY AREA). AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. IF THE
FRONT LIFTS MORE SLOWLY ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL
SEE SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHTER (~10 KT), MORE VARIABLE WINDS IS HIGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 5 FOOT SEAS
COULD LINGER NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
EVEN IF WINDS DECREASE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY, MD) THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW RISK
ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, ALL BEACHES WILL SEE A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK. INCREASING SEAS AND LINGERING STRONGER WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RIP RISK AT ALL BEACHES TO END
THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES ON SATURDAY DUE TO
LINGERING SWELL.
CLIMATE
AS OF 955 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WED 5/20: NO RECORD HIGHS SET TODAY. SBY WILL SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH MIN OF 71,BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 70 IN 2018. THIS
IS CONTINGENT UPON TEMPS NOT DROPPING BELOW 71 THROUGH 12 AM
LST (1 AM EDT).
SEE BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR WED 5/20:
RECORD
HIGH
MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/20
-------- ----
RICHMOND 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...AJB/LKB
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