646
FXUS61 KAKQ 210718
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
318 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER, LEADING TO HIGHER
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
LOWER-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO
START, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
LOWER-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.
A WARM AIRMASS BROUGHT IN BY CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ALONG
IT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING, AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO
FINALLY DAMPEN THE SE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST WEEK, WHILE ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE
TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW- MOVING AND IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SLOWER SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLE STRONGER STORM CHANCES). FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS FROM ROUGHLY RIC SOUTH WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IN ADDITION, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY (AND MARGINAL SHEAR) TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE
IS A LOW-END THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, WHERE WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE
BEST HEATING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
POOR, WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, EARLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S LATER IN
THE DAY.
INCREASING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND QUICKLY RISING PW VALUES WILL
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY
SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, AN EMERGING COOL
AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP TAKES HOLD FOR FRIDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S... FORECAST HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HAVE MAINTAINED
NO MENTION OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WEDGE AND LACK ON
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE DURABILITY OF THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAMELY, BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A GROWING SIGNAL THAT THE WARM FRONT REMAINS PINNED TO OUR
SOUTH A BIT LONGER, THEREFORE HOLDING THE WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS INJECTS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS STABLE, LOW-LEVEL NE
MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES (NEAR 80F) CONFINED TO THE SE, WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT LIFT AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY
DAY TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WEEKEND
CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST 00Z GEFS AVERAGES 1.0"-1.5" AREA WIDE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
SOME AREAS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC POSSIBLY SEEING 1.5-
2.0", WHILE THE EPS AVERAGES 2.0"-2.5" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS DEFINITELY ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW AS AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. BY MID-MORNING AT RIC AND SBY (EARLY AFTERNOON
AT ECG, PHF, AND ORF) , LOW CIGS WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CIGS DROP TO IFR, AND HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT RIC AND SBY FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND -TSRA AT
ECG, PHF, AND ORF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCOMING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE EXACT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
HENCE THE PROB30, BUT ONCE THIS BECOMES MORE CLEAR, THESE WILL
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AND CONVERTED TO TEMPOS. RIC AND SBY HAVE ALREADY
ARE SEEING WINDS TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT ECG, PHF, AND ORF THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
ONCE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT COMES THROUGH, WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TIMING VARIES OF THE WIND SWITCH, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT ECG WILL EVEN SEE A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IFR) ARE LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A COOL,
WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME UNSETTLED WITH
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY, OCEAN NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER,
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NE WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1024+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST
OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE
TO SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS OF 07Z.
LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS REFLECT W-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE 3-4 FT, WITH WAVES ON THE
EASTERN VA RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 1-2 FT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY,
MOVING THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, AND FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED NE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, AVERAGING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE VA-NC
BORDER, WITH WINDS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES (WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS
MAY STRUGGLE TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
(ESPECIALLY S OF VA BEACH) DUE TO THE SLUGGISH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT (HIGHEST N) BY TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 2-5 FT ON
THE BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL
WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH THE SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDED INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS
ARE STILL QUITE HIGH (70-100% OVER THE ADVISORY AREA), MAXIMIZED
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO LAG
FARTHER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL
SEE SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHTER (~10 KT), MORE VARIABLE WINDS IS HIGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 5 TO 7 FOOT
SEAS COULD LINGER NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING IN PERSISTENT E-NE SWELL, EVEN AFTER WINDS DECREASE.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
INCREASING SEAS AND LINGERING STRONGER WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE A HIGH RIP RISK AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE
WORK WEEK ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH RIP RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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