809
FXUS61 KAKQ 211801
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER, LEADING TO HIGHER
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOWER-
CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1050 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, ACTING
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR E NC. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC FROM THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NE
LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ASCENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP (MAINLY AFTER 2 PM).
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF
1020 AM. GIVEN MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED, TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS SUCH, HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH TEMPS AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPS WITH
HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S N TO THE LOWER 90S
S. TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
THE WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY.
AS SUCH, SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE
THAT THERE IS A MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE ON HRRR SOUNDINGS WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER INSTABILITY AND SHORTER
STORMS, LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ALOFT, STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS/STORMS. IF SHOWERS/STORMS DO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OR TRAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS A 10% CHANCE FOR 3"/3HRS ACROSS
FAR S VA/NE NC. HOWEVER, THE REFS HAS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE RICHMOND METRO. AS SUCH, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, THE THREAT WOULD
EXTEND FARTHER NORTH (POTENTIALLY INCLUDING RICHMOND), HOWEVER,
IF IT IS FASTER, THEN THE THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-64. IN ANY
CASE, WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
>3" OF RAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DROUGHT, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
QUITE HIGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING. THEREFORE,
THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACROSS URBAN AREAS. THE SEVERE AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL WANE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA, USHERING IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOWER- CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF CAD DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND LINGERING UNTIL SUNDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HAVE MAINTAINED NO
MENTION OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WEDGE AND LACK ON
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE DURABILITY OF THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. NAMELY, BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GROWING SIGNAL THAT THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT LONGER, THEREFORE
HOLDING THE WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS INJECTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY AS STABLE, LOW-LEVEL NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES (NEAR 80F)
CONFINED TO THE SE, WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE TO
NW, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF THE FRONT DOES NOT LIFT AS
QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY
DAY TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WEEKEND
CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST 00Z GEFS AVERAGES 1.0"-1.5" AREA WIDE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
SOME AREAS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC POSSIBLY SEEING 1.5-
2.0", WHILE THE EPS AVERAGES 2.0"-2.5" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH IS DEFINITELY ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW THAT ANY
GIVEN STORM WILL IMPACT ONE OF THE TERMINALS. AS SUCH, HAVE
OPTED FOR PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AT
ORF/PHF/ECG. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS SOUTH OF RIC AND
WEST OF ECG/ORF/PHF. HOWEVER, SINCE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND RIC, HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR THAT TERMINAL. A FEW
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH VIS REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
PATCHY ON FRIDAY. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 6Z).
CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ECG BY MID- LATE MORNING FRI, BUT LIKELY
REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY FRI ACROSS THE OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
IFR) ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS A COOL, WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME
UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NE WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS REFLECT NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN
OBX WHERE THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS YET TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH. SEAS ARE 3 FT, WITH WAVES ON THE EASTERN VA RIVERS, CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 1-2 FT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHER MARINE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, AVERAGING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE
VA-NC BORDER, WITH WINDS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
N OF CAPE CHARLES (WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES).
WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
(ESPECIALLY S OF VA BEACH) DUE TO THE SLUGGISH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT (HIGHEST N) BY TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 3-4 FT ON
THE CHES BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO LAG
FARTHER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL
SEE SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHTER (~10 KT), MORE VARIABLE WINDS IS HIGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 5 TO 7 FOOT
SEAS COULD LINGER NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING IN PERSISTENT E-NE SWELL, EVEN AFTER WINDS DECREASE.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WORK AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JDM
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