290
FXUS61 KAKQ 211840
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY SOUTH OF I-64. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, ACTING AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR CONVECTION. MEANWHILE, A MESOLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR
E NC. THIS MESOLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT N,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NE NC LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS IT SLOWLY PROPAGATES SE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F AS OF 220 PM. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-64. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
30 KT OF BULK SHEAR COLOCATED WITH 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, BOTH
THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ALOFT, STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS/STORMS. IF SHOWERS/STORMS DO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OR TRAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE 12Z HREF SHOWED A 30% CHANCE FOR 3"/3HRS ACROSS
INTERIOR SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. HOWEVER, THE 6Z REFS HAD
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS FARTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
RICHMOND METRO. AS SUCH, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
EXACT CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FRONT, THE THREAT IS NOW SOUTH OF
I-64. IN ANY CASE, WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR >3" OF RAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DROUGHT, FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FLOODING. THEREFORE, THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACROSS URBAN AREAS.
THE SEVERE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WANE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, USHERING IN COOLER, MORE
STABLE AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOWER- CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF CAD DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND LINGERING UNTIL SUNDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR FRI DUE TO CAD AND PERIODS OF
MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS NE NC
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
NO MENTION OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WEDGE AND LACK ON
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL NOTE THAT RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LESS RAIN ON FRI, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-64 FRI
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DURABILITY OF THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAMELY, BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A GROWING SIGNAL THAT THE WARM FRONT REMAINS
PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT LONGER, THEREFORE HOLDING THE WEDGE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
INJECTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS
STABLE, LOW-LEVEL NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOWER 80S) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW, BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF THE FRONT DOES NOT LIFT AS QUICKLY
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S ON SAT.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY
DAY TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WEEKEND
CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST 12Z GEFS AVERAGES 1.0"-1.5" NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND WITH
1.5-2.0" SOUTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE EPS AVERAGES 2.0"-2.5" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW THAT ANY
GIVEN STORM WILL IMPACT ONE OF THE TERMINALS. AS SUCH, HAVE
OPTED FOR PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY AT
ORF/PHF/ECG. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS SOUTH OF RIC AND
WEST OF ECG/ORF/PHF. HOWEVER, SINCE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND RIC, HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR THAT TERMINAL. A FEW
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH VIS REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
PATCHY ON FRIDAY. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 6Z).
CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ECG BY MID- LATE MORNING FRI, BUT LIKELY
REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY FRI ACROSS THE OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
IFR) ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS A COOL, WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO BECOME
UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NE WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS REFLECT NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN
OBX WHERE THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS YET TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH. SEAS ARE 3 FT, WITH WAVES ON THE EASTERN VA RIVERS, CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 1-2 FT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHER MARINE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, AVERAGING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE
VA-NC BORDER, WITH WINDS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
N OF CAPE CHARLES (WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES).
WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
(ESPECIALLY S OF VA BEACH) DUE TO THE SLUGGISH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT (HIGHEST N) BY TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 3-4 FT ON
THE CHES BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO LAG
FARTHER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL
SEE SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHTER (~10 KT), MORE VARIABLE WINDS IS HIGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 5 TO 7 FOOT
SEAS COULD LINGER NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING IN PERSISTENT E-NE SWELL, EVEN AFTER WINDS DECREASE.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WORK AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JDM
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