370
FXUS61 KAKQ 221826
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SATURDAY HAS TRENDED SHARPER WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. A LULL IN THE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY STILL BE LESS
THAN 0.15 ACROSS THE NW AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
WASHOUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC
EARLY IN THE DAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, REINFORCING THE CAD.
ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SE VA/NE NC SAT AFTERNOON,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTED SHOWERS AND AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
GREATER STORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED EVERY
DAY. INSTEAD, THE PERSISTENT ASCENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE THAT THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS RESULTS
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND OTHERS
RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE INCH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM, TIMING (AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY REMAINS GENERALLY LOW. THE 12Z GEFS HAD AN
AVERAGE OF 1.5-2" FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT 2-3" ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS >1" WAS LOW EACH DAY, MAXIMIZING AT 30-40%
MON ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THE 6Z EPS HAD EVEN LOWS PROBS FOR >1"
(20-30%) ON TUE INSTEAD OF MON. HOWEVER, THE AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH WED NIGHT ON THE EPS WERE SIMILAR TO THE GEFS
(1.5-2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH 2-3" ELSEWHERE). AS SUCH,
EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COOL CAD
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTH SAT ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MID 80S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NC. MEANWHILE, A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WILL SET UP
INLAND WITH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 60F ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AS SUCH, THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE VA (DEPENDENT
UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS).
THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS SUN. STAGNANT FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY
RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODERATING TEMPS ARRIVE SUN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S EACH
DAY. ADDITIONALLY, DEW POINTS RISE TO AROUND 70F SAT NIGHT EAST
OF I-95, SPREADING EVERYWHERE BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN VIS
REDUCTION DUE TO RAIN IS LOW, HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN
VIS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS RANGED FROM VFR
AT SBY TO MVFR AT RIC/PHF/ORF AND IFR AT ECG. CIGS EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AFTER 00-03Z SAT AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT SBY. IFR CIGS MAY REACH SBY BY AROUND 12Z SAT. IFR CIGS
LINGER THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS RIC/SBY WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING TO ORF/PHF. VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ECG SAT
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC SAT AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS REMAIN NE 5-10 KT
INLAND AND 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15
KT ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE SAT. WINDS BECOME E/SE AT ORF/ECG
SAT AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING. SUB- VFR MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW.
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON RAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED WINDS PERSIST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES JUST S OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
TO OUR N, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC, RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT NE WINDS MOSTLY IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ARE A LITTLE LOWER
CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE NC WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS (WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT) AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FRONT; SO, AS THE FRONT LIFTS N SATURDAY, THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY (THOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO
LINGERING SEAS). THE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE S-SE FOR
ALL OF OUR WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS SPEEDS WILL ALSO TREND LOWER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 4-5 FT
ACROSS THE OCEAN THIS MORNING. WAVES ARE 2-4 FT IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH. SEAS BUILD FURTHER BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY N OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH WIDESPREAD 6-8 FT
SEAS. CLOSER TO THE FRONT (NC/VA BORDER AND POINTS S), WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LOWER, SEAS WILL LIKELY INSTEAD REMAIN IT THE 4-5 FT RANGE.
ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY LINGER INTO MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT
GRADUALLY TREND LOWER AS WINDS DECREASE. SUB-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WORK AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW
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