955
FXUS61 KAKQ 230546
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. A LULL IN THE RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY STILL BE LESS
THAN 0.15 ACROSS THE NW AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
WASHOUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC
EARLY IN THE DAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, REINFORCING THE CAD.
ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SE VA/NE NC SAT AFTERNOON,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTED SHOWERS AND AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
GREATER STORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED EVERY
DAY. INSTEAD, THE PERSISTENT ASCENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE THAT THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS RESULTS
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND OTHERS
RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE INCH. GIVEN THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM, TIMING (AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY REMAINS GENERALLY LOW. THE 12Z GEFS HAD AN
AVERAGE OF 1.5-2" FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT 2-3" ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS >1" WAS LOW EACH DAY, MAXIMIZING AT 30-40%
MON ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THE 6Z EPS HAD EVEN LOWS PROBS FOR >1"
(20-30%) ON TUE INSTEAD OF MON. HOWEVER, THE AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH WED NIGHT ON THE EPS WERE SIMILAR TO THE GEFS
(1.5-2" ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH 2-3" ELSEWHERE). AS SUCH,
EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COOL CAD
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTH SAT ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MID 80S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NC. MEANWHILE, A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WILL SET UP
INLAND WITH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 60F ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AS SUCH, THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE VA (DEPENDENT
UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS).
THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS SUN. STAGNANT FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY
RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, MODERATING TEMPS ARRIVE SUN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S EACH
DAY. ADDITIONALLY, DEW POINTS RISE TO AROUND 70F SAT NIGHT EAST
OF I-95, SPREADING EVERYWHERE BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND WILL
LIKELY BE PASSING ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
INCLUDE -DZ TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, THOUGH MOST OF THE VIS REDUCTION
WILL LIKELY BE FROM BR THROUGH SUNRISE. IFR CIGS MAY REACH SBY BY
AROUND 10Z. IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
TERMINALS. VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ECG BY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AT
THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN NE 5-10 KT INLAND AND 10-15 KT ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS BECOME
E/SE AT ORF/ECG BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW.
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON RAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED WINDS PERSIST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS OF 5+ FT LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE CAROLINAS. TO OUR NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC, RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT ENE WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE NC WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS (WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT) AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT; SO, AS THE FRONT LIFTS N SATURDAY, THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO LINGERING 5+ FT SEAS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE S-SE FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
ALSO TREND LOWER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 4-6+ FT
ACROSS THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES ARE 2-4 FT IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH. SEAS BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY N OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH WIDESPREAD 6-8 FT
SEAS TONIGHT, BUILDING UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS
TOMORROW. CLOSER TO THE FRONT (NC/VA BORDER AND POINTS S), WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LOWER, SEAS WILL LIKELY INSTEAD REMAIN IT THE 4-5 FT
RANGE. ELEVATED SEAS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, BUT GRADUALLY
TREND LOWER AS WINDS DECREASE. SUB-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL.
HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...AJB/SW
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