690
FXUS61 KAKQ 230739
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NE NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND THE
COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS NIL NORTH OF THE
FRONT, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASHOUT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC EARLY IN THE DAY. OFF AND
ON SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, REINFORCING THE CAD. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON, ENOUGH IS FORECAST TO INSTABILITY DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
GREATER STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ONCE AGAIN, A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED EVERY DAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE PERSISTENT ASCENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY RATHER THAN CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM, TIMING (AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY REMAINS
GENERALLY LOW. WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE AN AVERAGE OF 1.5-3" ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE
NC), THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS THAT SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
RAINFALL, WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. WHEN
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THEY PAINT A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
PICTURE OF MUCH MORE MODEST PROBS FOR >1" (20-40%), WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CAD WILL LIKELY REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS MORNING UNTIL THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH
THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAD ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA,. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THIS AREA, AND MID 80S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES ACROSS NE NC. MEANWHILE, A
SHARP TEMP GRADIENT WILL SET UP INLAND WITH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE 60F ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THE FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT
NORTHWARDS, SO CONFIDENCE IS THE LOWEST IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE VA.
THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO FULLY
ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS SUNDAY. STAGNANT FLOW WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT
IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S EACH DAY. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND 70F TONIGHT EAST OF I-95, SPREADING
EVERYWHERE BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS FORECAST.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND WILL
LIKELY BE PASSING ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
INCLUDE -DZ TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, THOUGH MOST OF THE VIS REDUCTION
WILL LIKELY BE FROM BR THROUGH SUNRISE. IFR CIGS MAY REACH SBY BY
AROUND 10Z. IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
TERMINALS. VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ECG BY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AT
THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN NE 5-10 KT INLAND AND 10-15 KT ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS BECOME
E/SE AT ORF/ECG BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW.
CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON RAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT GRADUALLY TREND
LOWER AS A FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN DUE TO CONTINUING
ELEVATED SEAS.
- WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME RATHER VARIABLE NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED FROM
VIRGINIA BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING. NE WINDS CURRENTLY AVERAGE 15-20 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KT. OVER THE NC WATERS, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT, WINDS
ARE ~5-10 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND SE TONIGHT. THE
SWATH OF HIGHER WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THEREFORE,
EXPECT SUB-SCA WINDS BY LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LINGERING GUSTS TO
~20 KT WILL POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS CONFINED TO THE OCEAN N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FOR THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER, 1 PM FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY AND BAY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT, AND THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGHER SEAS. LOWER WINDS AND SUB-
SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. IN FACT,
THE (LIMITED) SUITE OF BUOY OBS SUGGEST SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT
ABOVE MOST WAVE GUIDANCE. SEAS TODAY WILL AVERAGE 4-6+ FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 6-10 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, POTENTIALLY
HIGHER 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE BAY BEGIN THE DAY AT 2-4 FT
AND LOWER TO 1-3 FT LATER THIS DAY. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT 4 FT
WAVES LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THESE HIGHER
SEAS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, BUT GRADUALLY TREND LOWER AS
WINDS DECREASE. SUB-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FROM VIRGINIA
BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE
NC OBX. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, BUT
NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE A BIT LOWER. IMPROVED BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN
MONDAY BUT A MODERATE RIP RISK MAY LINGER.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...AJB/SW
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