129
FXUS61 KAKQ 231825
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR TODAY, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STORMS BY
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A CAD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL, CLOUDY,
AND RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE CAD FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO
NE NC, HOWEVER, IT HAS MADE MUCH LESS NORTHWARD PROGRESS THAN
MODELS ORIGINALLY SUGGESTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE MIST AND LIGHT
RAIN HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY SHOWED. AS
SUCH, TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPS AS OF 155 PM RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F SE (APART FROM
LOWER 60S TO LOW- MID 80S ACROSS NE NC). GIVEN THE OBS, HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS TODAY WITH HIGHS NOW LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER
50S (POTENTIALLY LOCALLY MID 50S) ACROSS THE NW, LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR
SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO
WARM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE VA DEPENDING ON IF THE FRONT CAN
MAKE IT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR NOT.
GIVEN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR, THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BECOME LIMITED TO FAR SE VA/NE NC WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN NE NC WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED. THE HRRR
HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SCATTERED STORMS HERE FROM 3-7 PM.
ELSEWHERE, MIST AND LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUN.
GREATER STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH.
THE PERSISTENT ASCENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY RATHER THAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION (ONCE THE CAD ERODES). GIVEN THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM, TIMING (AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY REMAINS GENERALLY LOW. AS SUCH, A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED EVERY DAY, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE CAD AIRMASS LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC MON AS OPPOSED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER NW. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION
OF CONVECTION FOR TUE AND WED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IN ANY CASE,
GIVEN DAILY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
EPS AND GEFS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-1.5" OF RAIN NORTH
AND 2-2.25" OF RAIN ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, EXACT TOTALS
FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL LIKELY VARY WIDELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AIR GRADUALLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CAD LOOKS TO SLOWLY ERODE ON SUN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
IT NOW LOOKS TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (POTENTIALLY TO
AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR) INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER
70S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER ON
SUN BEFORE EVENTUALLY DROPPING BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TUE INTO WED. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS BEYOND MON
IS LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TO BE
MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY
STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE THE 60S AT OCEAN CITY, MD ON TUE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY INTO SUN.
NORTH OF THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REMAIN COMMON
THROUGH SUN MORNING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR.
ECG HAS IMPROVED TO MVFR CIGS WITH ORF LIKELY IMPROVING TO MVFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ECG LIKELY REMAINS MVFR THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WHEREAS ORF LIKELY DROPS BACK TO IFR AFTER
SUNSET (~00-02Z SUN). THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WITH 200-300 FT CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE CAD AIRMASS IN PLACE, VIS REDUCTION
DUE TO OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN MORNING. OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR, A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
NC AND FAR SE VA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ORF AND ECG. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN STORMS AT ECG, THEREFORE, HAVE A TEMPO FOR STORMS
AT ECG AND A PROB30 AT ORF. WILL NOTE THAT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OVERNIGHT, PATCHY INLAND FOG AND MARINE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE LOWEST VIS LIKELY CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN
AREA-WIDE.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON RAIN
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT GRADUALLY
TREND LOWER (FROM S TO N), AS A FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. SCAS
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE MID/UPPER BAY, AND
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
- WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME RATHER VARIABLE NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF IS EXPECTED FROM
VIRGINIA BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE N THIS MORNING, WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED WELL N OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALLOWED SCAS
TO EXPIRE FOR THE LOWER BAY (EXCEPT THE MOUTH), BUT DECIDED TO
EXTEND THEM THROUGH 4 PM FARTHER UP THE BAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE GRADUAL WIND
SHIFT TO THE S-SE TONIGHT, BUT SLOWED THIS DOWN BY ABOUT 3-4 HRS
PER THE LATEST TRENDS. THE SWATH OF HIGHER WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE NORTHWARD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. LINGERING GUSTS TO ~20 KT ARE LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND GUSTS CONFINED TO THE OCEAN N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGHER SEAS. LOWER WINDS AND SUB- SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. IN FACT,
THE (LIMITED) SUITE OF BUOY OBS SUGGEST SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT
ABOVE MOST WAVE GUIDANCE. SEAS TODAY WILL AVERAGE 4-6+ FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 6-9 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS,
POTENTIALLY HIGHER 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
STILL BE 2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT THE MOUTH INTO EARLY AFTN, BEFORE
DROPPING TO 1-2 FT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING. THESE HIGHER SEAS
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, BUT GRADUALLY TREND LOWER AS
WINDS DECREASE. SUB-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FROM
VIRGINIA BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE
TODAY FOR THE NC OBX. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY, BUT NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE A BIT LOWER. IMPROVED
BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY BUT A MODERATE RIP RISK MAY
LINGER.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/SW
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