384
FXUS61 KAKQ 240725
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR TODAY, BUT STILL
EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) MUCH WARMER TODAY, THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO
HANG ON IN THE PIEDMONT. WARMER AREAWIDE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STAGNANT "COLD"
AIR DAMMING (WEDGE) AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED WEDGE FRONT IS ORIENTED NE-SW, ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN NC
OBX INTO THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN. NW OF FRONT (I.E., ALL OF OUR
FORECAST AREA), A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. VISBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3
MILE RANGE, BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO A HALF MILE. THE CAD AIRMASS SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO ERODE LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N, IN
RESPONSE TO SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STILL, THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW PROCESS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO FAST ON THIS
EROSION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ARE QUITE
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT, WITH A WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INITIATING/FORCING MECHANISM. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE CAMS SHOW A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN (ALONG THE WEAK FRONT AND
SMALLER-SCALE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES) AND MOVING N INTO SE VA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN PROGRESS FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
STORMS WITH SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW QUICK
SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WAVES
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERNS PERSISTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
PWATS NEARING OR EXCEEDING 2". THIS WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PLACE EACH DAY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH WARMER TODAY, THOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO
HANG ON IN THE PIEDMONT. WARMER AREAWIDE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE CAD WILL FINALLY ERODE FROM SE TO NW TODAY.
HOWEVER, COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ON LONGEST IN THE PIEDMONT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE NBM TEMPERATURES AND TREND CLOSER TO
MOST OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S W TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S E. MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH THE NEARBY FRONT MAY WAVER NEAR THE AREA AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL
COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS SURGING WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S. SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR LATE MAY STANDARDS, BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE ONGOING AS OF 06Z. EXPECT
THESE DEGRADED CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS, THOUGH THE 100-300 FT CIGS WILL PROBABLY ONLY PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z-13Z OR SO. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
COULD BE TOO QUICK WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE IFR CIGS LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR THE SE TERMINALS (ECG, ORF, AND PHF) THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY. THE WIND GENERALLY AVERAGES ENE ~5
KT THIS MORNING, BECOMING VRB IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE S-SE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL, WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON RAIN
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
- WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
1036MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
THE WIND IS GENERALLY ENE 5-10KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED RANGING FROM
4-6FT S TO 6-8FT N. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY ARE MAINLY 1-2FT, WITH
~3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1NM.
SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED, GENERALLY 4-6FT, AND HIGHEST N. THE STATIONARY
FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
WIND BECOMING SE TO S AND REMAINING 5-10KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE OR CHANGEABLE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
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