017
FXUS61 KAKQ 241755
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE CAD HAS TRENDED STRONGER TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
NOW EXPECTED TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE CAD HAS TRENDED STRONGER TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
NOW EXPECTED TODAY.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STAGNANT
"COLD" AIR DAMMING (WEDGE) AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE FRONT IS ORIENTED NE-SW, ROUGHLY FROM
NORTHERN NC OBX INTO THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN, EXTENDING INTO
GA/SC FARTHER INLAND. NW OF FRONT, A MOIST LOW- LEVEL AIRMASS
HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. FOG HAS MOSTLY
ERODED INLAND BUT IS STILL PRESENT ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING MARINE FOG INLAND.
BASED ON OBS, VISIBLE SATELLITE, AND PRESSURE FIELDS, IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CAD WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH NO REAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, THERE
IS NO METEOROLOGICAL REASON THAT THE CAD WILL QUICKLY ERODE
TODAY. AS SUCH, HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
AND NOW HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
NORTHERN NECK, AND EASTERN SHORE, AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC (WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR). WOULD
NOT BE BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE CAD AIRMASS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY ERODE LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N, IN RESPONSE TO
SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP- LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STILL, THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO
FAST ON THIS EROSION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A NARROW WARM
SECTOR ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INITIATING/FORCING
MECHANISM. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE CAMS SHOW A HIGHER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN (ALONG THE WEAK FRONT AND SMALLER- SCALE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES) AND MOVING N INTO SE VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN PROGRESS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS
WITH SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY,
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
QUICK SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TONIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERNS PERSISTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH PWATS NEARING OR EXCEEDING 2". THIS WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE EACH DAY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S EVERYWHERE MON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SIMILAR TEMPS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY WARMER (MID TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY UPPER 80S) TEMPS WED AND THU.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE CAD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
COVER THINNING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, BKN-OVC SKY COVER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CIGS WERE
MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT MVFR AT ECG AND PHF.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SBY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH,
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC/ORF/PHF WITH
PREVAILING IFR CIGS AT SBY AND MVFR CIGS AT ECG. WILL NOTE THAT
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SBY BRIEFLY DROPS TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND, IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ECG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VIS REDUCTION DUE
TO FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT SBY. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR MON MORNING INTO MON
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY REMAINING IFR AT SBY. GIVEN THE STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE, POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AREA-WIDE TODAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE IS ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC (INCLUDING ECG) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, ONLY HAVE A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ECG.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
- WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
1036MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
THE WIND IS GENERALLY ENE 5-10KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED RANGING FROM
4-6FT S TO 6-8FT N. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY ARE MAINLY 1-2FT, WITH
~3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1NM.
SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED, GENERALLY 4-6FT, AND HIGHEST N. THE STATIONARY
FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
WIND BECOMING SE TO S AND REMAINING 5-10KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE OR CHANGEABLE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY DROPS BACK INTO THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
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