253
FXUS61 KAKQ 241958
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ON THE
OCEAN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE CAD HAS TRENDED STRONGER TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE CAD HAS TRENDED STRONGER TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STAGNANT "COLD"
AIR DAMMING (CAD) AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED WEDGE FRONT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY
AND IS STILL ORIENTED NE- SW, ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN NC OBX INTO
THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN, EXTENDING INTO GA/SC FARTHER INLAND.
NW OF FRONT, A MOIST LOW- LEVEL AIRMASS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS. TEMPS AS OF 300 PM RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NW TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SE, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
LOWER 70S. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD EROSION WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FINALLY WARM ABOVE THE 60S FOR MOST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE
ARE ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING REMAINING, TEMPS
SHOULDN'T RISE TOO MUCH. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE WITH UPPER 60S STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOUISA COUNTY.
THE CAD AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N, IN RESPONSE TO
SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP- LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STILL, THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO
FAST ON THIS EROSION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE STABLE
AIRMASS, POPS HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF EXTREME SE VA/NE
NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NC, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERNS PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME,
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS NEARING OR
EXCEEDING 2". THIS WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
THE AREA. WHILE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IN PLACE EACH DAY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SOME CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IF THEY ARE REALIZED (MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS). SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
GUSTY WINDS IN WATER- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN INCREASING
INSTABILITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE MON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SIMILAR TEMPS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY WARMER (MID
80S) TEMPS WED AND THU.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN FORECAST.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE CAD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
COVER THINNING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, BKN-OVC SKY COVER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CIGS WERE
MAINLY IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT MVFR AT ECG AND PHF.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SBY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS SUCH,
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC/ORF/PHF WITH
PREVAILING IFR CIGS AT SBY AND MVFR CIGS AT ECG. WILL NOTE THAT
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SBY BRIEFLY DROPS TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND, IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ECG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VIS REDUCTION DUE
TO FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT SBY. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR MON MORNING INTO MON
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY REMAINING IFR AT SBY. GIVEN THE STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE, POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AREA-WIDE TODAY WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE IS ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC (INCLUDING ECG) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, ONLY HAVE A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ECG.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
- SUB-SCA SSW WINDS PREVAIL MONDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS TUE.
STRONG (1038 MB) HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THIS AFTN, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT THUS FAR TODAY. THE FRONT IS FINALLY SHIFTING N, ALBEIT
SLOWLY. HAVE EXTENDED SCAS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
SLOWER PROGRESSION, AND SEAS THAT ARE STILL 5-6 FT N, AND 4-5 FT
S. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY IN NC, BUT STILL N-NE ELSEWHERE, THOUGH
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE E-SE THIS EVENING, AND
THEN TO THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY AT
10-15 KT, WITH SEAS DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 4 FT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT, AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING, SO WINDS
LOOK TO STAY RATHER LIGHT, BUT DO LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NE TUESDAY
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS. NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING, WITH A
MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY AS NEARSHORE WAVES DROP TO ~3 FT WITH
WINDS BECOMING S-SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
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