479
FXUS61 KAKQ 250717
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN LOCATIONS HAS
INCREASED A BIT TODAY, BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN ANY STORM, WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
2) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN ANY STORM, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN ONGOING
THIS MORNING. A WEAK CAD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE W OF I-95, BUT
THE PERSISTENT E-NE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE S-SE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
WITH HEIGHT NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES (UNLIKE
WHAT WAS SEEN THE PAST 2 DAYS), WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER, ALLOWING FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR INITIATION TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ALONG LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
GIVEN DEEPLY-SATURATED PROFILES SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, WITH PWATS
PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2" FOR A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (AND NE NC). THE CONSENSUS FROM THE HREF AND REFS PLACES
THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST QPF ROUGHLY FROM THE I-85 CORRIDOR
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIC METRO AND NORTHERN NECK. AN ADDITIONAL
MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE IN THE HAMPTON ROADS VICINITY DUE TO SOME SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. WHILE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, SOME ISSUES COULD DEVELOP
IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IF 1-2" FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD,
ALONG WITH ANY REPEATED TRAINING OF MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT OCCURS. THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION WITH WPC ON UPGRADING
PORTIONS OF THE VA TIDEWATER TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS MITIGATED BY
THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CONFINED TO THESE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS, THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED AIR LIKELY
DROPS TEMPS BACK INTO 60S AND 70S BY THE EVENING.
SHOWERS LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH LOWER GIVEN DWINDLING INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLS AND ALSO WHERE STORMS ARE FAVORED. SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY (AND STORMS) ARE LIKELY ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT,
WITH MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCES TO THE N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITIONING
(PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY) WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM WELL N OF
THE AREA TO BISECTING OUR CWA. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA, HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN VA AND THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER FROM
THE NORTHERN NECK ONTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AGAIN FAVOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN
MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR. THE FRONT'S LOCATION
ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT, THE WARMEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE FAVORED FROM SOUTHERN VA
INTO NC, THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. WARMER AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID 80S POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS OUT
OF EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS WILL BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CHANCES.
IN FACT, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES (WELL INTO THE 80S) ARE SIMILAR
OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER THURSDAY VS WEDNESDAY. "COOLER" AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F.
THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
OUT OF CANADA AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM. RAIN CHANCES COULD THUS RETURN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT MONDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EITHER LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CIGS. PATCHY
LOWERED VSBY IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE SBY VICINITY. FURTHER
LOWERING OF CIGS IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND RIC OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH CONTINUED LIFR AT SBY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT ORF
AND ECG AS SOME IMPROVEMENT AND SCOURING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY IFR PERSISTS AT SBY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY RAIN/VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE S-SW AND
BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH 10 AM.
- SUB-SCA SSW WINDS PREVAIL TODAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY, THEN SUB-SCA SW
WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING IN VICINITY OF THE LOWER CHES. BAY AND VA
CAPES. THE WIND IS MAINLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE N-NE TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND OUT OF THE SSW SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO 3-4FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO LINGERING SCAS FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 4AM. VSBY IS ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, SO THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW 8-12KT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
SETTLES SOUTH TUESDAY WITH THE WIND REMAINING LIGHT, BUT SHIFTING TO
E/NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT THEN
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SW
FLOW DEVELOPING. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 3-4FT
INITIALLY TO 2-3FT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH OFFSHORE SEAS
SUBSIDING FROM 4-5FT TO 3-4FT. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY WILL BE ~1FT
WITH LIGHT FLOW, AND 1-2FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES N-S ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING NORTHERLY, BUT
REMAINING SUB-SCA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSES THE
COAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH A N/NE WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
WHICH WOULD ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...ERI/SW
MARINE...AJZ
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