647
FXUS61 KAKQ 090535
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
STARTING MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
STARTING MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING BACK
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SLIDE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE ALOFT, A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TOMORROW WILL LARGELY BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS AT THE COAST TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
WEDNESDAY, THEN MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S THURSDAY. FRIDAY COULD
PERHAPS BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD PENDING TIMING OF
CONVECTION. NBM SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT HOT COMPARED TO
OUTPUTS FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC MODELS (100-105
COMPARED TO 95-98). THE PROJECTED THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE LATTER
TO BE MORE LIKELY. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT TEMPS AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S A MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AS 12Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IT IS WORTH NOTHING THAT THE RECORD TEMP FOR
RICHMOND ON FRIDAY IS 100F AND THE MODELED RIDGE POSITION PLUS
POTENTIAL PRECIP DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO BREAKING RECORDS.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE A HOT DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100- 103F. TEMPERATURES
LEVEL OUT SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW 90S.
THERE WILL ALSO BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN TURNS MORE
UNSETTLED. THESE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL, PEAKING IN COVERAGE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY E OR SE AT 5 KT OR
LESS. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE ESE/SE 5-10 KT ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND S 5-10 KT INLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (SCT/BKN) CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN FEW/SCT CU
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHC OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (ENE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
AND WAVES 3-4 FT CHES BAY) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE TIDAL RIVERS OF EASTERN VA, THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND AND
THUS SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE UNTIL 10 PM, FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH TO THE NC
BORDER UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY, AND SOUTH TO CURRITUCK LIGHT THRU 6 AM
TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY FOR SEAS OF 4-5 FT (POTENTIALLY UP TO 6 FT
OFF THE NORTHERN OBX). WINDS BECOME E 10-15 KT THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT (5-10 KT) OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SE 15-20 KT LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING S TUE NIGHT
BEHIND THE HIGH. S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATE REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT SCA
CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ACROSS THE CHES BAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
SURGE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-
6 FT. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION)
ARE LIKELY FROM THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...JDM
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