833
FXUS61 KAKQ 090646
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY BUT NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS MONDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY BUT
NOT QUITE AS COOL AS MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BANDS OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATUS OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE TODAY WHICH ALLOWS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO SWING AROUND TO THE SE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SATURATION WELL ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
WHICH WILL HAMPER FULL SOLAR INSOLATION. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE KNOCKED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
LOW/MID 80S FOR INLAND AREAS. NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY BUT SE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BAY/COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING
ON THE MID-ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SPARK MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS, LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LVL
1/5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
MODESTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LEND SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO TICK UP LATE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 103- 108 RANGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
CONVECTION OR THICKER CLOUD COVER. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE WEEKEND REMAINING WARM BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY E OR SE AT 5 KT OR
LESS. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE ESE/SE 5-10 KT ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND S 5-10 KT INLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (SCT/BKN) CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN FEW/SCT CU
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHC OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (ENE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
AND WAVES 3-4 FT CHES BAY) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE TIDAL RIVERS OF EASTERN VA, THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND AND
THUS SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SCAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE UNTIL 10 PM, FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH TO THE NC
BORDER UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY, AND SOUTH TO CURRITUCK LIGHT THRU 6 AM
TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY FOR SEAS OF 4-5 FT (POTENTIALLY UP TO 6 FT
OFF THE NORTHERN OBX). WINDS BECOME E 10-15 KT THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT (5-10 KT) OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SE 15-20 KT LATE TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING S TUE NIGHT
BEHIND THE HIGH. S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATE REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT SCA
CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ACROSS THE CHES BAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
SURGE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-
6 FT. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION)
ARE LIKELY FROM THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...JDM
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