944
FXUS61 KAKQ 101101
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE.
2) HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
3) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER, AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALOFT, RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS. A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
TO CREEP INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
POTENTIAL COMPLICATES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE PIEDMONT AROUND SUNRISE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MOVING EAST AND
THINNING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
HEATING IS REALIZED, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD BE STRONG IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. GIVEN THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS, DECIDED TO KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (HIGHEST S WHERE ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER PEAK
HEATING). SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU-FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING ON THE MID-
ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SPARK MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A LARGE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
ON THURSDAY. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT SOME ROBUST PULSE-TYPE
CELLS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHEAR IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NEUTRAL OR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LEND SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO TICK UP LATE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE 100-105
RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
CONVECTION OR THICKER CLOUD COVER. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST SOME OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY HAS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING DEW PTS MIX DOWN INTO THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS CONTINUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER
HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW
GRADUALLY DRIFTS E-SE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM,
THE WIND SHIFT TO N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER DEW PTS
AREA-WIDE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SHOW THE PWAT ANOMALIES
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED THOUGH BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
LOWERING CIGS AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE W OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THESE LOWER CLOUDS (AND SHOWERS), BUT MARGINAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND POTENTIALLY NEAR RIC AND SBY IN
THE 12-17Z TIMEFRAME. MORNING SHOWERS ARE FAVORED AT RIC AND SBY
BEFORE A LULL ARRIVES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS, IS POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS AT SBY, RIC,
ORF, AND PHF FOR LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS, GENERALLY AFTER
20Z. WINDS AVERAGE 5-10 KT OUT OF THE S THIS MORNING, SHIFTING
TO THE SW WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THU-FRI, BUT WITH A CHC OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTINUING SE (WITH LOWER COVERAGE TO THE N FOR THE WEEKEND).
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
AREA BEACHES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH S WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING SW LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SW WINDS TO
15-17 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHES
BAY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS
AND SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SCAS AT THIS TIME (WINDS
PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ONLY 20-25%). WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH THU WITH GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION) LIKELY FROM THU INTO SUN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED S
WINDS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986)
- RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914)
- SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914)
- ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
- RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986)
- SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947)
- ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB
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